2011 MLB preview: AL Central capsules

2009 record: 94-68

Projected payroll: $113 million

Key newcomer: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Why they will win: They return six starters who won 10 or more games last year and have top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings. When healthy, the middle of their order can be very potent.

Why they won't win: Justin Morneau (concussion), Joe Mauer (knee surgery) and Joe Nathan (elbow surgery) need to prove they can get through the season. The bullpen has been a strength in recent years and could be a weakness this year.

Player on the spot: Michael Cuddyer

2009 record: 88-74

Projected payroll: $125 million

Key newcomers: Adam Dunn, Jesse Crain, Will Ohman

Why they will win: Dunn gives them the lefthanded thumper they desperately lacked last season, and they have four good starters -- Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson -- whether Jake Peavy is healthy or not.

Why they won't win: Buehrle, Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski are getting old, and Peavy is a big if, with Phil Humber as his replacement.

Player on the spot: Gordon Beckham

2009 record: 81-81

Projected payroll: $105 million

Key newcomers: Victor Martinez, Joaquin Benoit, Brad Penny

Why they will win: Victor Martinez gives them a potent middle-order hitter to go with Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez, who missed the final two months of last season because of a broken ankle.

Why they won't win: The Tigers don't have as much depth offensively as the Twins and White Sox. Detroit has a hole at second base, and pitchers won't be afraid to challenge Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge and Ryan Raburn.

Player on the spot: Rick Porcello

2009 record: 69-93

Projected payroll: $50 million

Key newcomer: Orlando Cabrera

Why they will win: Catcher Carlos Santana, a Rookie of the Year contender last season, has recovered from knee surgery, and Grady Sizemore should be back from his knee surgery in April.

Why they won't win: Beyond Fausto Carmona, their rotation is riddled with questions, although Justin Masterson finished strong last year. The Indians remain in a rebuilding mode, hoping the players obtained in recent fire sales finally will bloom.

Player on the spot: Matt LaPorta

2009 record: 67-95

Projected payroll: $36 million

Key newcomers: Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francis

Why they will win: They are heading for another losing season, but the bigger story will be the progress made in baseball's highest-rated farm system. Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Mike Montgomery are among the names to watch.

Why they won't win: Their current lineup comes from the land of misfit toys with Francoeur, Cabrera, Jason Kendall and Chris Getz among other team's discarded players taking up full-time spots.

Player on the spot: Alex Gordon