"Tracking Santa's Flight with Flightradar24"
"Santa's elves are putting the finishing touches on the toys and the ground crew is readying the sleigh. Rudolph's anti-collision beacon red nose has received a polish as well. With the work nearly complete, Santa is ready for tracking on Flightradar24.com or in the Flightradar24 iOS and Android app! How to use our Santa tracker To track Santa on Flightradar24, use our special tracking link or search SANTA1, HOHOHO, or R3DNO53 beginning at 19:00 UTC on 23 December. This year we're once again using tracking Santa with a mix of terrestrial and satellite-based ADS-B coverage. Fortunately, Santa was able to extend the reach of his transponder by using the reindeer antlers as additional antenna."
See more from FlightRadar24 HERE:
Record Warmth on Christmas Eve!!
Believe it or not, Christmas Even Sunday is going to be a very warm day with record highs likely in many spots (highlighted in yellow below). Note that the record high for the Twin Cities on Christmas Eve is 46F and we'll shatter that with highs warming into the mid 50s in the afternoon. We could see record highs as far north as International Falls and Baudette, MN.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Christmas Day
Areas of rain will continue through the day Monday with the bulk of the precipitation falling in the Twin Cities through the day. Most of the precipitation will fall in the metro as rain, but areas of snow and freezing rain will be possible across western Minnesota. Winds will be breezy with gusts approaching 35mph at times.
Near Record Warmth on Christmas Day Monday
It won't be quite as warm on Christmas Day, but the Twin Cities will be only a few degrees away from a record high. Record highs will be likely from near Rochester, MN to Green Bay, WI.
RAIN !? On Christmas...
A long duration storm system will move through the Midwest over the holiday weekend. Areas of steady rain will fall around the Twin Cities through Christmas Day, while areas of wintry precipitation will fall just north and west of the Twin Cities. This storm will also be responsible for gusty winds over the next several days.
A Very Wet Forecast
Here's the extended precipitation forecast into next week, which suggests some pretty widespread 1" to 2" liquid tallies across much of the region. Again, most of the precipitation will fall in the form of rain near the Twin Cities, but will mix in with freezing a
Snowfall Potential?
The snowfall potential into early next shows areas of snow across far western Minnesota and into the Dakotas. Some of the heaviest snow will fall across South Dakota, where plowable amounts will be possible.
Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temperatures over the next few days will be well above average with record warmth likely on Sunday and close to records on Monday. We'll see a bit of a cool down into next week with highs hovering around the freezing mark around New Year's Day, which is still above average for this time of the year.
"A Historically Warm and Snowless December in Minnesota"
"December 2023 has been more like November in Minnesota, with bare ground dominating the landscape across the state for much or all of the month, and temperatures remaining mild with a few bouts of very warm weather. Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have kept frigid winter air masses locked up in central and northern Canada, 1,000 to 2,000 miles to our north. Most days have been much warmer than average, and passing cold fronts have struggled to bring in anything other than seasonally-normal air. The lack of snow cover has boosted temperatures further, because bare ground absorbs sunlight and warms the air above it 10-20 times more effectively than fresh snow. Snow cover during winter is a classical climatic "feedback," because snowy ground keeps temperatures lower, making precipitation more likely to fall as snow, which reinforces or deepens the cooling. A lack of snow cover allows temperatures to rise more readily, making rain more likely."
See more from MN State Climatology Office HERE:
"115 Million Americans Expected to Travel over Christmas, New Year's"
Second highest year-end holiday travel forecast since AAA began tracking in 2000. AAA projects 115.2 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the 10-day year-end holiday travel period*. This year's total number of domestic travelers is a 2.2% increase over last year and the second highest year-end travel forecast since 2000, when AAA began tracking holiday travel. 2019 remains the busiest Christmas and New Year's travel period on record with 119 million travelers. "This year-end holiday forecast, with an additional 2.5 million travelers compared to last year, mirrors what AAA Travel has been observing throughout 2023," said Paula Twidale, Senior Vice President of AAA Travel. "More Americans are investing in travel, despite the cost, to make memories with loved ones and experience new places."
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. This by the way doesn't look to be changing anytime soon with milder than average temperatures continuing and very little snow in the forecast. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Historical Chances of a "White Christmas"
"Will we have snow on the ground at Christmas? It's an age-old question that we hear frequently as the holidays approach. The chances of having a "white Christmas," defined as having one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25th, range from virtually guaranteed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and a good part of the Arrowhead, to about 60% in southwestern Minnesota. The snow depth at most sites is measured once a day, usually in the morning. The best chances of having a white Christmas is almost guaranteed. Northern Minnesota is one of the few non-alpine climates in the US where a white Christmas is almost a sure bet. In 124 years of snow depth measurements in Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 71% of the time. From 1899 to 2022 there have been 36 "brown Christmases," with either a 0 or a "trace" reported for snow depth on December 25th in the Twin Cities; the last such instance was in 2021, when warm conditions melted all remaining snow on the 24th and in the overnight hours before the morning observation. The years 2018 and 2015 also no measurable snow on the ground in the Twin Cities on December 25th."
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
White Christmas History in the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the White Christmas History over the last 49 years (since 1953) in the Twin Cities. Since 2000, we've had 6 brown Christmases, where we failed to have at least 1" of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. 2021 was the most recent year, but in 2010, MSP had a whopping 19" of snow on the ground. Note that in 2018, we had a weak El Nino and we had a brown Christmas and in 2015, we had a very strong El Nino we had a brown Christmas.
Twin Cities December Summary So Far
Meanwhile, it has been a very warm and snowless December so far in the Twin Cities. Temperatures running nearly +10.0F above average through the first 22 days of the month, we're currently sitting at the 6th warmest start to any December on record. We're also -7.0" below normal snowfall for the month. We still have a little more than 1 week left of the month, but if we fail to see any additional snow this month, this would be the 8th least snowy December on record.
On Track For the 3rd Warmest Year on Record
It certainly has a warm year, but did you realize that MSP is on track for the 3rd warmest on year record? With only 9 days to go, the average temperature is only 0.6F behind the warmest year on record which occurred in 1931.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen 4.5" of snow this season, which is more than -11.0" below normal snowfall, which is the 30th least snowy start to any season on record. With only 6.3" of snow in Duluth, they are nearly 2 feet below normal snowfall and good enough for the 10th least snowy start to any season on record. Marquette, MI is nearly 42" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, there is no climate site that has a surplus. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, December 24th will be quite soggy with areas of rain and wind developing across the region. The heaviest and steadiest rains will be north and west of the Twin Cities, but there will be a better chance of rain in the metro later into the afternoon and evening.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the mid/upper 40s in the morning and will warm into the mid 50s by the afternoon, which will shatter the record for the day. Areas of rain will become more likely later in the afternoon and evening. Southeasterly winds will be breezy with gusts approaching 25mph to 30mph at times.
Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for Sunday will warm into the 40s and 50s across much of the state, which will be nearly 20F to 30F above average. Record highs will be likely for some with areas of rain falling for Santa's big flight
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be quite a bit warmer than average over the next several days. Highs will warm into the 40s and 50s through early next week before falling into the 30s by Wednesday and Thursday, which will still be above average.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days will be very warm through the Christmas Holiday Weekend. Record highs will be likely on Sunday with areas of steady rains through early next week. There could be a little wintry mix through the first half of the week, but the best chance of accumulating snow will be across far western Minnesota. The 2nd half of next week will feature drier and sunnier weather with cooler temps, but we'll still be above average for the end of December.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across the Western US and along the International border. Meanwhile, cooler temps will develop across the Southeastern US into Early January.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Southern and Southwestern US into early January. Meanwhile, drier weather will continue across the northern tier of the nation, including much of the Midwest.
1-2" Rain May Fall Today Into Wednesday
By Paul Douglas
All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth. And a much bigger Doppler. Just like 2015, 2018 and 2021, there will be no snow on the ground Christmas morning in the Twin Cities (and most of Minnesota for that matter). Can I interest you in a tasteful display of lukewarm puddles?
Our biggest snowstorms usually come with arctic air firmly in place, and a southern storm pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward. Stating the obvious - with temperatures 20-30F warmer than average (low to mid 50s today, smashing the old record of 46) - there isn't nearly enough cold air in place for significant snow. Rain? Yes. In fact ECMWF and NOAA models consistently print out 1-2" of rain before showers taper on Wednesday. Welcome to late April.
We will cool off into the 20s by late week, but a mild El Nino signal lingers into January, possibly longer.
Santa is packing his waders and Rudolph's red nose will be able to cut through the fog, mist and rain. Hey, is that sleigh lightning-proof? A Christmas Soaker! Wow.
Extended Forecast
CHRISTMAS EVE (SUNDAY): Record warmth. Rain. Winds: SE 15-30. High 55.
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT: Rain likely. Winds: SSE 10-15. Low: 39.
CHRISTMAS DAY (MONDAY): Rain likely. Ice far western MN? Winds: NE 15-30. High: 46.
TUESDAY: A cold rain. Raw. Winds: NE 15-25. Wake-up: 40. High 43.
WEDNESDAY: Showers taper, chilly. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High 39.
THURSDAY: Sunny and chilly. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 26. High 32.
FRIDAY: Few flakes, feels like late December. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 19. High 28.
SATURDAY: Sunny with less wind. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 17. High 30.
This Day in Weather History
December 24th
1996: Strong winds of 20 to 30 mph, combined with over a foot of new snowfall, result in restricted visibilities from blowing snow. As a result, several highways closed, including highway 19 west of Redwood Falls, highways 7 and 40 at Madison, and highways 67 and 23 out of Granite Falls.
1982: Heavy rain falls over the state, along with slushy snow over southwest Minnesota. Twin Cities gets 2.61 inches of precipitation through Christmas. Some lightning and thunder occur with the heavy rain on Christmas Eve.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 24th
Average High: 26F (Record: 46F set in 1957)
Average Low: 13F (Record: -31F set in 1872)
Record Rainfall: 1.26" set in 1982
Record Snowfall: 5.2" set in 2009
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 24th
Sunrise: 7:48am
Sunset: 4:36pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 47 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 10 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 16 Seconds
Moon Phase for December 21st at Midnight
1.5 Days Since First Quarter Moon
"Dec. 26 at 6:33 p.m. CST - The Full Cold Moon; among some tribes, the Full Long Nights Moon. In this month the winter cold fastens its grip, and the nights are at their longest and darkest. Also sometimes called the Moon before Yule (Yule is Christmas, and this time the moon is only just after it; the next full moon that falls on Christmas Day will come in 2034). The term Long Night Moon is a doubly appropriate name because the midwinter night is indeed long and the moon is above the horizon a long time. The midwinter full moon takes a high trajectory across the sky because it is opposite to the low sun."
National High Temps on Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows well above average temperatures in the eastern half of the nation with record warmth likely in the Midwest. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will continue in the Central. Meanwhile, the Western US will chill down to below average readings
National Weather Outlook For Sunday
The National Weather Outlook on Christmas Eve Sunday will be pretty active across the Central US with storms possible across the Southern US and locally heavy rain. Soaking rains will continue for some farther north into the Midwest with snow and wintry precipitation from the Front Range of the Rockies to the Dakotas and Minnesota.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Monday shows a very active setup in the Central US with showers, storms and a steady soaking rain for many. Areas of accumulating snow and icing will be possible north and west of the storm system, which will cause some travel concerns through early next week.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Central and Southern US. There will also be some heavy precipitation across the Western and US.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snows are in the forecast across parts of the Western US through ext week. Some of the heaviest and most widespread could be in the high elevations in Colorado and Wyoming. However, there will be some decent tallies in the Plains. Also note the heavier snow around the Great Lakes, which will be induced by some colder air on the way into next week.
Climate Stories
"Can it really be too cold to snow?"
"We investigate the belief that some days, it's just too cold to snow. "It's too cold snow." I first heard this phrase from an Alaskan friend when I was living in Vermont where it was often cold and sometimes snowed. I hadn't given the idea much thought before – cold sometimes brought snow and snow was always exciting, but I'd no idea it could be too cold to snow. He was from Alaska, so I kind of assumed he knew more about snow than I did. Since then, I've experienced a lot more snow in lots of different temperatures, having lived in the Colorado Rockies for over a decade, and I've often wondered if it's true. Can it be too cold to snow? And how cold does it have to be to snow?"
"Winter is here, but it's losing its cool"
"Winter is here, but for most of the United States, it's feeling less and less like it. At 10:27 p.m. ET on Thursday, Earth's Northern Hemisphere will be at its greatest tilt from the sun, marking the winter solstice: the shortest day of the year and the official start of the coldest season. But winter is warming rapidly because of human-caused climate change and it's having an impact on snow, tourism, winter sports, local economies, dinner plates and even allergies. The winter period from December to February is now the fastest-warming of the three-month seasons for nearly 75% of the US, according to an analysis of NOAA temperature data by Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research group. The analysis looked at average winter temperatures for 240 locations across the US and found the winter warming trend covers every corner of the map — temperatures had warmed in 97%, or 233, of the spots since 1970."
"Snow Sports Are Getting More Dangerous"
"Extreme conditions caused by climate change are making winter sports more risky. From Colorado to Washington, that's also making mountain rescue missions even more perilous. Many people meet Dale Atkins for the first time on their worst days—ice climbers who are stranded and injured, skiers that have been swallowed by an avalanche. Atkins, a skilled mountaineer as well as a climatologist and former weather and avalanche forecaster, is one of the experts on Colorado's Alpine Rescue Team that local sheriffs call to the rescue. In some ways, planning for and executing those rescues is becoming more complicated because of climate change. Weather fueled by climate change can elevate hazards on the mountain, whether through weird winter rain, blizzards, droughts, or summer wildfires. Each extreme impacts the landscape with a potentially fatal danger. And faced with such unpredictability, experts can't shake the fear that their work is shifting away from recreational rescues toward disaster response."
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