The term "small sample size" gets used so often in baseball (and other areas) these days that it is in danger of losing some of its meaning, context and relevance — just as many catchy phrases or buzz words have in the past (R.I.P. whatever thinking outside the box was originally intended to actually mean).
But sample size is still a relevant thing, and I'm here to make it great again by showing how it relates to your 0-6 Minnesota Twins.
If the bullpen had a pecking order going into 2016, it probably looked like this: Glen Perkins at the top as the closer; Kevin Jepsen next, as the eighth-inning guy; Trevor May close behind as the guy who would come in to get the big outs in the 6th or 7th as needed (a role that is sometimes more important than those other two roles given that he figures to come into games with runners on base and in potentially game-defining at-bats); Casey Fien as the known commodity who would pitch in medium-leverage situations (Twins down by a couple of runs but still in a game; Twins up by a few runs but not wanting to burn May or Jepsen, etc.); Ryan Pressly as an emerging but not fully trusted arm; Fernando Abad as the lefty specialist; and Michael Tonkin as the last man standing/long guy by default/out of options and wasn't even supposed to be here.
The first four guys are arguably the most important guys. The way hitters work counts and starters expend energy these days, six good innings is often all you can reasonably ask for from a starter. From there, it might take four relievers to finish the job.
And those first four Twins relievers have struggled to varying degrees this season. In a larger context, their failure — insomuch as one frustrating week of baseball in a six-month marathon can be labeled a failure — is a product of the Twins failing to properly judge sample sizes.
*With Perkins, the Twins took the long view. This is a pitcher who was primarily very good over the last five seasons and was virtually unhittable in the first half of 2015. He's been named to the past three All-Star teams. But his performance plummeted in the second half of 2015 (the ugliest number being the 7.32 post-break ERA), a descent attributed to injuries.
The Twins gave him his closer role back in 2016. They might have been privately concerned with his velocity dip during spring training, but the message from Perkins and others was that he would be fine once the lights came on. Instead, he's looked shaky in two outings — the most notable of which being Sunday's blown save in his first opportunity. His velocity is still a few ticks below peak performance — a fastball that once routinely hit 95 mph is now settling in around 91 or 92. In counting on the old Perkins based on the large sample size instead of the small one, the Twins made their bullpen vulnerable.
*With Jepsen, the Twins took a small sample size — lights-out pitching in the final two months of the season last year, a performance that kept the Twins in the playoff chase — and perhaps overvalued it. Jepsen has been a good relief pitcher for much of his career, but there is nothing in his history that suggests he is a lights-out guy over the long haul. His career ERA is 3.67, though it is much better (2.47) in 2014 and 2015 combined. He's a top-four bullpen arm, but his track record makes him far from a certainty to deliver clean eighth innings almost all the time.
