Wild overwhelmingly favored over Colorado for final spot in Stanley Cup Playoffs

The Wild's odds of making the playoffs have been trending up since since mid-February and improved drastically with Tuesday's victory over Colorado.

March 2, 2016 at 8:48PM
(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The Wild resurfaced in the top eight of the Western Conference standings Tuesday night.

The 6-3 victory over Colorado catapulted the Wild back into playoff position by passing the Avalanche in the wild-card race. Both teams have 68 points in the standings and a combined 35 games remaining, but the odds of a postseason berth overwhelmingly favor the Wild over the Avs.

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tuesday's big win was worth a 14 percent spike in the Wild's playoff chances, according to analytics website Sports Club Stats. With the bump, the Wild now has a 73.9 percent chance to make the playoffs with 18 games left in the regular season.

The Wild also improved its chances to win the Stanley Cup by .7 percent to 2.3 percent.

Colorado's playoff chances dropped 13.8 percent to 25.1 percent after a third loss in the last four games. The Avs have 17 games remaining.

Sports Club Stats calculates each team's odds of making the playoffs by simulating upcoming games based on past results, the scores and home-ice advantage.

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Playoffstatus.com gives the Wild a 56 percent chance of advancing to the first round of the playoffs, while the Avs have just a 40 percent chance. Hockey-reference.com's playoff probabilities report, based on 1000 simulations of the remainder of the season, gives the Wild a 65.5 percent chance and Colorado a 32.4 percent chance to make the postseason.

The Wild has been on an upwards trend since mid-February when the group strung together four straight after former head coach Mike Yeo was fired. The Wild hit a high 97.1 percent chance of making the playoffs after beating Dallas 2-1 on Jan. 9.

ADVERTISEMENT

Then the Wild won just one game over the following month going 1-11-2. Its chance of making the playoffs plummeted to 33.4 percent.

Colorado's highest rating this season was 67.9 percent after beating Dallas 3-1 on Jan. 23, but has been on a steady decline with a 6-8-1 since then.

The Wild's remaining schedule includes just six games against teams — St. Louis, Chicago, Los Angeles, Detroit, San Jose — with a higher chance of making the playoffs. Colorado's remaining schedule has 12 games against higher-rated teams.

The odds look good for the Wild and as Playoffstatus.com puts it, the Wild now controls its own destiny.

about the writer

about the writer

jason.gonzalez

More from Wild

See More
card image
ETHAN CAIRNS/The Associated Press

The Wild have lost two in a row to teams near the bottom of the NHL standings during a four-game Western trip.

card image
card image