Where will 'easier' schedule take these 2016 Gophers?

ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit unveiled his college football predictions Wednesday and made the Gophers his surprise pick to win the Big Ten West.

Minnesota went 6-7 last year, with six losses coming against 10-win teams. This year's schedule is considerably easier with no TCU, Ohio State or Michigan. But there are plenty of skeptics outside Dinkytown. The Gophers were picked to finish fifth in the West in the Big Ten preseason media poll. Las Vegas puts their over-under at 6.5 wins. Athlon picked the Gophers to go 6-6. Even Gophers coach Tracy Claeys has tempered the easy schedule talk.

"We don't have as many so-called big names on the schedule, but we do have five conference road games," he said. "Having to go on the road and win in the Big Ten isn't easy."

With the same quarterback, most top skill-position players and a similar defense, this theoretically should mean more wins.

Seasons often snowball, and with softer slate to start, it's not hard to picture a 7-2 start, or possibly better. But the final three opponents — Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin — defeated Minnesota by a combined 106-46 last year.

With the season starting one week from Thursday, here's a game-by-game look:

Game 1 | Sept. 1 vs. Oregon State

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 70, SBNation: 78.

About the Beavers: Former Wisconsin coach Gary Andersen went 2-10 in his first season at Oregon State, and Las Vegas gambling outfit Bovada has the Beavers over-under at 3.5 wins. Utah State transfer Darell Garretson takes over at QB for a team that ranked 115th in scoring offense last year. The Beavers were better against the run than the pass, but ranked 114th in scoring defense. Oregon State will be improved but not enough to pull a Week 1 road upset.

Game 2 | Sept. 10 vs. Indiana State

Projected line: Gophers by 24.

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 94, SBNation: 92.

Game 3 | Sept. 24 vs. Colorado State

Projected line: Gophers by 11.

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 84, SBNation: 84.

About the Rams: In their first season under coach Mike Bobo, the former Georgia offensive coordinator, the Rams won their final four regular-season games and finished 7-6. QB Nick Stevens returns, but WR Rashad Higgins left early for the NFL. The Gophers needed overtime to defeat Colorado State 23-20 last year in Fort Collins. With the Gophers coming off a bye, this one should be easier at home.

Game 4 | Oct. 1 at Penn St.

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 19, SBNation: 33.

About the Nittany Lions: Penn State plays its Big Ten opener at Michigan one week earlier. Stakes are high entering coach James Franklin's third season. Former Gophers offensive coordinator Matt Limegrover is coaching a Penn State offensive line that surrendered 39 sacks last season. With QB Christian Hackenberg in the NFL, Penn State will turn to sophomore Trace McSorley. The Gophers won the last meeting 24-13 in 2013, but this is their first trip to Happy Valley since 2009.

Game 5 | Oct. 8 vs. Iowa

Projected line: Iowa by 6.

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 33, SBNation: 56.

Game 6 | Oct. 15 at Maryland

Projected line: Maryland by 1.

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 45, SBNation: 51.

About the Terrapins: D.J. Durkin, the former Michigan and Florida defensive coordinator, takes over a Maryland squad that was better than last year's 3-9 mark indicated. The Terps allowed 34.4 points per game, and their minus-18 turnover margin ranked among the worst in the nation. Senior QB Perry Hills will guide an up-tempo offense. The Gophers lost their only previous game against Maryland, 17-7 in the 1977 Hall of Fame Bowl.

Game 7 | Oct. 22 vs. Rutgers

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 62, SBNation: 78.

About the Scarlet Knights: Rutgers went 8-5 two years ago, but a slew of bad off-field news and a fall to 4-8 cost Kyle Flood his job. The Scarlet Knights hired former Ohio State defensive coordinator Chris Ash, who is revamping everything. They'll have a spread offense, which will be a switch for junior Chris Laviano, who was recruited for a pro-style attack. This is the Gophers' first game ever against Rutgers, and they picked it for homecoming.

Game 8 | Oct. 29 at Illinois

Projected line: Gophers by 4.

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 49, SBNation: 57.

Game 9 | Nov. 5 vs. Purdue

Projected line: Gophers by 13.

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 60, SBNation: 78.

About the Boilermakers: Darrell Hazell's seat is hot, with Purdue 6-30 overall and 2-22 in the Big Ten under his watch. "The most important people where the morale counts are in the locker room," he said. "Our morale is off the chart." A softer schedule might help, and getting middle linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley back from his ACL injury will improve the defense. But the Gophers should have little trouble beating Purdue for the fourth straight time.

Game 10 | Nov. 12 at Nebraska

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 17, SBNation: 32.

About the Cornhuskers: Tommy Armstrong Jr. and almost all the top skill players return to a potent offense. Eden Prairie grad JD Spielman has had a terrific camp and likely won't redshirt. The Gophers barely could move Nebraska's defensive line when they rushed for only 65 yards in a 48-25 home loss last year. But the Cornhuskers had wholesale changes on the D-line with Maliek Collins and Vincent Valentine leaving for the NFL. The Gophers stunned Nebraska in 2013 and 2014. To do it again, they'll need their best running game.

Game 11 | Nov. 19 vs. Northwestern

Projected line: Gophers by 1.

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 49, SBNation: 62.

Game 12 | Nov. 26 at Wisconsin

Projected line: Wisconsin by 13.

Gophers' win probability percentage: ESPN: 20, SBNation: 39.