Watching the debate in this country over public safety, you'd think some people wish to live securely, while others welcome Armageddon. Conservative pundit Bill O'Reilly recently went after "liberal politicians" in Chicago and San Francisco, noting crime in those cities and saying, "The situation is out of control and a disgrace, and that's what happens when incompetent politicians demand the police stop enforcing laws."
The truth is, we all want to be safe. The struggle isn't about outcomes, it's about methods. Should law enforcement have ready access to everyone's phone location-tracking data? Should police be required to undergo de-escalation training before being authorized to use force?
These aren't questions to be resolved by free-for-alls on cable news channels. They require facts and analysis. And yet, although the U.S. shells out well over $100 billion each year for public safety, we have remarkably little idea whether that money is well-spent. It's possible that any given policing tactic or technology — from Tasers to facial-recognition systems to body cameras — is a fine or poor idea. But we really don't have much sense of which tactics and tools work, or whether they are worth the cost.
Throughout the rest of government, we use cost-benefit analysis to answer these sorts of questions. (Many economists prefer to call it benefit-cost analysis, or BCA, rightly asking: Why worry about the costs until we know if there are any benefits?) Whether it is environmental regulation, workplace safety, financial rules or the provision of health care, BCA is pervasive. But as a 2014 report by the Vera Institute of Justice pointed out, BCA has not been widely taught or used in criminal justice.
Take ShotSpotter, a technology that uses sound waves to pinpoint where a gun has been fired. The product is marketed as allowing police to know about gunshots and respond quickly, especially in neighborhoods where people aren't inclined to call the cops. ShotSpotter leases the technology to cities at a cost of $65,000 to $95,000 per square mile per year. This is serious money for cash-strapped cities, so the question naturally is: Is it worth it? To answer this, we'd want to see good data on whether the technology is helping cops nab shooters, whether there are fewer shots fired when it is in place or whether gun violence is down. And we'd then want to know if the technology is more effective than an alternative, such as hiring more officers.
Unfortunately, it is harder than it should be even to get data to do BCA around policing. The reasons for this are many. Law enforcement's instinct is to give no information beyond what is necessary, making democratic engagement with policing extremely difficult. Additionally, the technologies for police data collection are in many ways primitive, as anyone who has watched a police officer filling out incident reports in duplicate on the back of a cruiser knows. There are about 18,000 departments, and aggregated data would be useful, but we often don't have it.
(In ShotSpotter's case, though, the problem is different. Much of policing technology is being privatized, and private vendors — claiming trade secret protection — shield data from the public and researchers.)
In the modern era, policing has put more focus on discouraging crime in the first place. Take airport security: Anyone who carries a bomb through a checkpoint will be arrested. But the point of the fortune we spend on airport security is to prevent people from even contemplating such an attack. The same may be said of closed-circuit TV cameras that peer down at us all over our cities and the deployment of many other technologies.