The Vikings head into Sunday's game as three-point underdogs, facing a Green Bay team that's had 10 days off after its season-opening win. But Lambeau Field hasn't given the Packers much of an advantage lately; the Vikings are 2-1-1 in their past four trips there. An assertive Vikings defense will get the better of a Packers offense still trying to find its footing.

THREE BIG STORY LINES

Packers defense the first priority?

The NFC North isn't used to worrying about the Packers' D, but it held the Bears to three points as free-agent pickups Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Adrian Amos all played starring roles.

Revamped offenses want to run

Packers coach Matt LaFleur worked for Gary Kubiak in 2008, and the scheme La-Fleur brought has plenty in common with Kubiak's — both teams will keep their QBs under center more often, emphasize the running game and throw off play-action.

Returning to the scene of the tie

A year ago, the three field-goal attempts Daniel Carlson missed, in a tie that ended up costing the Vikings a playoff spot, turned out to be his last in Minnesota. The Vikings signed Dan Bailey shortly after, and he'll head to Lambeau Field hoping for a better result.

TWO KEY MATCHUPS

Vikings DE Everson Griffen vs. Packers LT David Bakhtiari

Bakhtiari has a back injury, but assuming he's able to play, he'll square off against a pass rusher who looked like his old self last Sunday. Griffen, who had a sack and created plenty of disruption along the line of scrimmage, will face a Pro Bowl tackle he called one of the three best in the league.

Vikings' offensive line vs. Packers LB Za'Darius Smith

The Packers will move Smith around their defense, which means stopping him won't be a one-person job. The Vikings spent much of the week telling players that stopping Smith was one of their keys to victory. After the Packers' new acquisition had 10 pressures and a sack in Week 1, it's easy to see why.

ONE STAT THAT MATTERS

5-1-1 The Vikings' record against the Packers in seven games dating to their NFC North-clinching win in Week 17 of the 2015 season. It's their best seven-game stretch against Green Bay since a 6-1 run from Dec. 2, 1990, to Dec. 19, 1993.

THE VIKINGS WILL WIN IF …

They can create big plays with their running game again, avoid third-and-long situations where the Packers can come after Kirk Cousins, and extend drives to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.

THE PACKERS WILL WIN IF …

They're able to get their passing game going — possibly by winning matchups in the slot with Mackensie Alexander out — against a Vikings defense that should have some new tricks for Rodgers.

Prediction: Vikings, 20-14
Win Probability 55 percent