Brian Dozier turns 25 next Tuesday.
That’s not young for a prospect. This spring he barely made the cut of Baseball America’s top 10 Twins prospects. Above him on that list were Chris Parmelee (who is hitting .203), Liam Hendriks (who is being demoted to AAA-Rochester) and Joe Benson (who was demoted yesterday to AA-New Britain yesterday). He has never hit even double-digits home runs in his minor league career. Prior to this year, he was never a fulltime shortstop in the minors.
Anticipation, especially prolonged anticipation, can really skew expectations. Dozier has been talked about since the middle of last year by manager Ron Gardenhire. At the time, Gardenhire was also desperate for anything resembling a competent middle infielder. If you’re especially optimistic about Dozier’s debut this week, that prolonged anticipation is likely the cause, more so than any promise he’s shown in the minor leagues. Along with his other challenges, he will likely be dealing with inflated expectations.
But there may be a bigger challenge. Dozier is likely being rushed. After spending three years navigating through rookie ball, A-ball and AA-ball, he’s had all of a month at AAA. He hasn’t posted particularly impressive numbers at that level: .276 average, one home run and two stolen bases, though he’s shown good control of the strike zone. And it’s not like he’s caught fire recently – he’s hit about .200 over the last several weeks after a hot start.
Finally, promoting Dozier now is an odd move financially. Major League clubs will often wait until the first couple of weeks in June to promote a prospect so he doesn’t reach arbitration a year early as a “Super 2”. What does that mean? The short answer is that if Dozier succeeds as a starting shortstop, the Twins will need to pay him a million dollars extra or more per year from 2015 through 2018, just so they could call him up a few weeks early this year.
So why now?
Initially, the answer seems obvious: in a lost season, why not play the youngsters? But if that’s the philosophy, then why is Liam Hendriks being sent back to Rochester? Why can’t Trevor Plouffe find his way into the lineup? And why not give Dozier another four weeks in Rochester to regain his stroke and lower his future compensation?
Instead, the answer seems to be the opposite. Dozier is coming up because things are getting desperate. He’s a lottery ticket, or maybe a more apt analogy would be that he’s a Christmas present that the manager (and maybe the organization) is anxious to open.
That’s fun, but it’s worth noting just how often that has backfired on the Twins in the last year. The fast-rising Hendriks made all of nine pitching starts in AAA, didn’t have much success and then struggled in the majors until he was demoted again. Ben Revere spent just a few weeks in AAA where he had trouble getting on base, did the same in extended time in the majors, and is back in Rochester. Chris Parmelee, after a strong September and spring training, skipped Rochester entirely and now has 20 strikeouts and four walks.
One might think that with that recent track record, an organization might be a little more conservative in their callups. Instead, the Twins are rushing a mid-level prospect to the majors to help save the season. I hope they (and Dozier) enjoy the moment. But it would sure be nice if this present wasn’t returned.
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Brian Dozier deserves to be an All Star. More importantly, the Twins need him to continue the production in the second half of the season.