Twins take conservative approach to 3-and-0 pitches

It almost happened on Wednesday. Brian Dozier was batting in the eighth inning, with the Twins leading Detroit 3-2, and Tigers reliever Neftali Perez was having trouble finding the plate. The count got to 3-and-0 and, "I thought, 'I've seen his pitches, I might get a good one here,' " Dozier said. Sure enough, Perez threw a fastball on the outside edge of the strike zone, and Dozier … watched it.

Of course he did. Like most of his teammates, Dozier is trained to do anything he can to get on base, and in most cases, that means letting 3-0 pitches go by in hopes of drawing a walk. The Twins are one of the most conservative teams in baseball on 3-0 pitches, in fact, with players like Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano known for drawing walks.

But it's not just the middle of the lineup. Twins hitters have faced a 3-0 count 187 times this season (not counting intentional walks), and according to MLB's Pitchf/x data, only 11 times have they so much as swung at the next pitch. They have looked at called strikes 124 rimes, almost exactly two-thirds of such at-bats, and only five times have they put the ball in play, going 0-for-5. They are one of two teams, along with the Rockies, never to collect a base hit on a 3-0 pitch this season, and they didn't have one last year, either.

No Twin has swung at a 3-0 pitch more than once this season except Trevor Plouffe, who has swung seven times (going 0-for-4) — and there's a reason for that.

"I like to swing on 3-0. I think more guys should," said Plouffe, who has two career hits on 3-0, including a home run in 2012, but none since 2013. "The way pitching is now, pitchers are getting more dominant. [Hitters] don't have the advantage very often, so 3-0 is a time where you can maybe get a good one."

Manager Paul Molitor gives each hitter a take or swing-away sign, relayed through third-base coach Gene Glynn, on every 3-0 count, with veteran hitters and power hitters trusted a little more. "For power hitters, it's a good risk sometimes, because a big swing from those guys, you might take that over a walk, since he's not going to be much of a baserunner," Glynn said. "Most of our guys are pretty smart about it."

Including Plouffe. "For the most part, you've seen three pitches, you've been able to time [the pitcher] a little, and 99 percent of the time, you're going to get a fastball," Plouffe said, who isn't exactly hacking wildly at 3-0 — his seven swings have come on 21 chances. "But you have to zone up and get the right pitch. You've got to know it's a pitch where you can do what you want to accomplish."

But some teams are more willing take a cut at a 3-0 pitch. Sixteen teams have homered on a 3-0 pitch this season — St. Louis' Justin Upton and San Francisco's Brian Crawford have connected twice — but no Twin has done so in more than two years, since Justin Morneau on Aug. 8, 2013. (That's also the Twins' last 3-0 hit of any kind.)

Dozier would seem a likely candidate, since he's led the Twins in home runs in each of the past three seasons — but he has never swung at a 3-0 pitch in the major leagues, not even once in his 105 career chances. He has taken 77 called strikes instead, and walked 28 times.