"Are the Twins for real?" is a question you have probably asked or tried to answer this spring.
My stock answer is still that the lineup absolutely is for real, even if some of the numbers aren't sustainable. And if the pitching continues to trend at a better-than-expected pace, this whole thing is very much real. To get a better handle on this pinch-me first 35 games, let's take a look at five mind-boggling numbers that have shaped the early part of the season for the Twins:
1) Minnesota started the season as a considerable underdog to win the AL Central. The Twins' hot start, combined with Cleveland's vulnerability and the mediocrity (or worse) of the rest of the division, has considerably changed those odds. In fact, most baseball websites now pick the Twins as the favorites to take the division title.
Entering play Wednesday, FanGraphs listed the Twins with a 53% chance to win the division (and an 80% chance to make the playoffs as either a division winner or wild card). FanGraphs has Minnesota projected to win 92 games and Cleveland projected to win 91. That's tight, but it's still an edge.
Similarly, Baseball Prospectus gives the Twins a 55% chance of winning the division, while FiveThirtyEight has them at 58%.
2) Jose Berrios, Martin Perez and Jake Odorizzi have made a combined 14 starts since April 14. They are a combined 13-0 (with one no-decision from Perez) in that span while allowing only 19 earned runs in 90 innings pitched (1.90 ERA).
Berrios has been somewhere between very good and great for the entire season and had a track record suggesting he was due for this sort of start to the season. Odorizzi and Perez are pitching above expectations, to say the least, and it is fueling the Twins.
3) The Twins entered Wednesday leading the majors in slugging percentage (.487). It goes without saying, but these are not your small-ball, move-the-runner-over Twins. They were on pace to hit 286 home runs, which would obliterate the team record of 225 homers set in 1963.