Some free advice for Derek Falvey: Take a center fielder.
The Twins have pick No. 20 in Monday's first round of the amateur draft, and it's the seventh time they'll choose from that spot. They've never chosen from another specific spot more than four times, so this is a weird habit.
It's a pretty successful one, though. No, they never took a pitcher who may make the Hall of Fame, like elite No. 20s Mike Mussina (1990 by Baltimore) or C.C. Sabathia (1998 by Cleveland). But if you rank (by career Wins Above Replacement) the 53 players chosen 20th since the draft began in 1965, the Twins have taken three of the top 10 (and traded for a fourth, Eric Milton). Trevor Plouffe, picked 20th in 2004, hit 96 homers in seven seasons with Minnesota. Eric Milton, chosen at 20 in 1996 by the Yankees but traded to the Twins as a minor leaguer in the Chuck Knoblauch trade, won 41 games in a three-year span with the Twins and made an All-Star team.
And the Twins hit the jackpot at No. 20 in 1993 and 2002, when they chose a couple of center fielders who manned the position for 17 seasons between them: Torii Hunter and Denard Span.
Sure, there have been misfires, too. Chris Parmelee, No. 20 in 2006, played parts of four seasons and had more strikeouts than hits, but at least he made the major leagues. The same can't be said for 20th-pick mistakes Bob Jones in 1966 or Johnny Ard in 1988.
Falvey, the Twins' chief baseball officer, won't say who the Twins will take 20th this year, mostly because he has no idea. "When you're picking past the top five picks, it's really hard to know," Falvey said. "My understanding of this year's draft is that it might be even harder to know, because it seems like there are a few guys up at the top that you feel pretty good about going early, but after that, it gets unclear who goes next."
The Twins' scouting staff has been in Minneapolis for a week, sharing evaluations, trying to divine the intentions of teams picking ahead of them, and ranking the prospects.
They've compiled their own mock drafts a couple of times already, "scenario planning," Falvey said, for reacting to what happens in the first 19 picks. "We'll say, assume the board goes this way — these five guys go off, these are the three players available to us," Falvey said. "Are we good what who we'll select there? Do we have the order right?"