Twins' guessing game continues right up to draft day

Every class is unique in Major League Baseball's first-year player draft because of its groupings of talent. Sometimes there's a top tier of players before the talent level drops off. Other times, there's a Stephen Strasburg, where there is one clear-cut prospect above all the others.

Teams will try to identify how deep the top group is, then the next group, and so on. The goal is to figure out what players might be available in a group when it's your turn to pick.

The Twins believe there are three pitchers who should be in the top group of this year's draft. As the first two rounds of the draft take place Thursday, they are trying to figure out who will be available when their turn comes with the No. 5 overall pick.

"Every round has natural breaks," said Mike Radcliff, Twins vice president of player personnel. "This year has a break of about three pitchers, then four to five guys who are pretty good. Then it drops down after that. It's not a great draft, depthwise. It's not a great draft from the top."

The top three pitchers are considered to be, in no particular order: lefthander Carlos Rodon from North Carolina State, lefthander Brady Aiken from Cathedral Catholic High School in San Diego and righthander Tyler Kolek from Shepherd (Texas) High. Kolek, whose fastball has been clocked at 100 miles per hour, could be the first righthanded prep pitcher ever taken with the No. 1 overall pick.

Multiple baseball publications have predicted the Twins will take shortstop Nick Gordon from Olympia High in Orlando with their No. 5 pick. He is in a group that includes catcher-outfielder Alex Jackson from Rancho Bernardo High in Escondido, Calif; lefthander Sean Newcomb from the University of Hartford; lefthander Kyle Freeland from the University of Evansville and righthander Aaron Nola from LSU.

Gordon is the son of former major league pitcher Tom Gordon and brother of Dodgers second baseman Dee Gordon.

''He can throw people out from left field,'' said Gordon, who is with his son and other family members near Secaucus, N.J., where they will attend the draft. ''He's started to understand his abilities. He's started to understand his power. What he has done in the last year, he has been phenomenal to watch.''

The Twins reportedly have done extensive research on Gordon and like his makeup, believing he will become a good pro hitter.

But it's not that simple. Sometimes teams contact each other to see which way they are leaning, but the Twins aren't sure what the four teams in front of them — the Astros, Marlins, White Sox and Cubs — will do.

"There's always late information on players and how they are doing," Twins scouting director Deron Johnson said. "You have to take every game into consideration. The list is always moving. Things are being rearranged."

The Astros have the first pick, and most of Houston's front-office members have been out to see Kolek pitch. But in 2012, the Astros selected shortstop Carlos Correa with the first pick and signed him to a financially-friendly deal, leaving Byron Buxton for the Twins at No. 2. Could the Astros have something up their sleeve again?

They also have done a lot of work on Nola, who doesn't have powerful stuff but could move quickly through the minors.

The Twins are looking at a group of seven to eight players they could take with the No. 5 pick.

On Thursday, they will wait and see who falls to them at No. 5, then act accordingly.

"You have to play out every potential scenario from [the Astros' No. 1 pick]," Radcliff said.