Jim Souhan: Forecast should be partly cloudy, in mid-70s

FORT MYERS, FLA. —Baseball analysts have created a statistic called "Win Shares," in an attempt to quantify a ballplayer's worth.

In this space, we rely on a more evolved formula entitled "Win Guesstimates," and that's how we'll discern how many victories the 2008 Twins will produce.

Here are the contributing factors, accompanied by their WG:

Losing Lew Ford: The Twins have had a batting champ, MVP, Cy Young winner and three other All-Stars on their roster the past two years, and the fan favorite was Leeeeeew Ford. The Hanshin Tigers' gain is Minnesota's gain. WG: Plus 100. (Twins win meter: 100.)

Losing Johan Santana: Santana went 82-35 from 2003 through 2007. Losing him, and not replacing him with anything resembling an ace, will hurt like a foul tip off the cup. WG: Minus 20. (Win meter: 80.)

Losing Torii Hunter: He was their best player last year and ran down a lot of pitcher's mistakes in center. Carlos Gomez has more raw talent, but Hunter's value shouldn't be diminished just because he's in danger of getting sucked into the Lindsay Lohan/TMZ celebrity vortex. Minus 10. (Win meter: 70.)

The continuing struggles of the Vancouver Canucks: Justin Morneau -- the baseball MVP who thinks more about hockey -- didn't sleep much this spring. He'd go to bed with his cell phone on. His NHL buddies would text-message him the results of their games in the middle of the night, and his buzzing phone would wake him.

Think about that sentence while we subtract 10 more victories because of hockey fatigue. (Win meter: 60.)

Mauer's health: The kid looks fit, relaxed, confident, and the sideburns are already in midseason form. Plus 10. (Win meter: 70.)

Bend it like Livan: Hernandez's ability to kick a rolling ball into Morneau's glove for the most unusual out in Twins history was cute, but making soccer references in a baseball clubhouse is bad karma, especially since the Twins scored about as often as a soccer team last year. Minus 1. (Win meter: 69.)

New locker alignment: With Santana, Hunter and Carlos Silva gone, a bunch of key Twins have taken over the row of lockers near the Twins' training room. As Morneau likes to tell him, this will make it easier for Mauer to make it to the training room. Plus 5. (Win meter: 74.)

No contract issues: The Twins have had their best seasons this decade when they didn't have contract issues or potential trades hanging over the clubhouse. Now that Nathan's signed, there are no major issues. Plus 6. (Win meter: 80.)

Gaining hitters: The Twins should hit better at third, second, left field and DH. Plus 10. (Win meter: 86.)

Losing fielders: The Twins regressed at center, third and second. Minus 8. (Win meter: 78.)

Livan as Opening Day starter: Glad they moved the game up to 6 p.m., or curfew would be an issue. Minus 5. (Win meter: 73.)

Not having players dipping into the Mall of America shark tank to film commercials: The Piranhas posed underwater last winter and never surfaced. Plus 1. (Win meter: 74.)

Terry Ryan watching Oprah and Dr. Phil: Freed from the GM position, Ryan now admits to watching daytime TV, walking his dog and being recognized by his children. This will enable Ryan to maintain the team's self-esteem when the Twins are 20 games out of first. Plus 1. (Win meter: 75.)

Opening against the Angels: In this series, it will be better to be the Hunter than the hunted. Minus 2. (Final win meter total: 76-86.)