From Kevin Pelton on ESPN.com (insider required):

Now that the NBA draft is complete and the best prospects from both the NCAA and abroad have found homes, it's not too early to begin thinking about what these players can contribute as rookies.

My projection system translates NCAA performance to the pros using the performance of past rookies and adjusting for strength of schedule. To that is added the pace at which each newcomer's NBA team played last season and a guess at minutes per game to create a projected stat line. Here's a look at the most impressive of next season's rookies (whenever they finally get to take the floor):

Derrick Williams: 28.0 mpg, 13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.1 apg
Williams' role is a little more difficult to project. Conservatively, he figures to play somewhere around 28 minutes a night, seeing action at both forward positions for the Minnesota Timberwolves. This projection doesn't account for how moving to the perimeter might affect Williams' performance, so feel free to subtract a rebound or even two per game off that total.

The more important numbers for Williams as a small forward will be his 3-point percentage and his free throw attempts. Williams got to the free throw line more frequently than any other go-to scorer in the country at Arizona, padding his numbers. He also made 56.8 percent of his shots from downtown, one reason a move to small forward is even possible. Williams won't be that effective from the longer line, but if he keeps his percentage in the high 30s, he'll remain efficient.

Thoughts?