System failure might be coming for New England

GLENDALE, ARIZ. - New England owner Robert Kraft has enjoyed boasting about the creation of a system that allows the Patriots to contend seriously on an annual basis in this salary cap era.

That's the reason he targeted Bill Belichick, a CIA type, as a replacement for Pete Carroll, an affable politician, after the 1999 season. That's also the reason Kraft has done everything in his power to retain Scott Pioli to assist Belichick in personnel and to manage the cap.

The Patriots have been such a success -- four Super Bowl appearances in seven seasons -- that teams such as the Vikings talk freely of emulating the system, which includes these principles:

Evaluate talent exceptionally well. Say goodbye to veterans (Corey Dillon) making big money when you have a younger alternative (Laurence Maroney). Keep an important contributor as long as possible (Asante Samuel) but develop an option rather than give in to over-the-top contract demands.

Here in Minnesota, Rick Spielman, a failure as a personnel boss in Miami, is off to a good start with the 2007 draft. Rob Brzezinski has maintained an enviable salary cap situation for several years.

There are a couple of problems in trying to adopt the Patriots' system that don't figure to change in the near future:

A) The main ingredient in Belichick's machine has been Tom Brady, No. 1 to Peyton Manning's 1A as the game's best quarterback. The Vikings are trying to develop a quarterback in Tarvaris Jackson, who could advance to competent in 2008 but will never step around in a pocket with Brady-like mastery.

B) The next most important ingredient has been Belichick's ability to see things -- first with personnel, then with schemes -- that seem a bit removed from the grasp of our guy Brad Childress.

That said, don't be surprised if our Little Major wins as many games with the Vikings next fall as do these Patriots, who gave several indications over the past few days in Arizona that the Kraft Plan is coming unglued and they are headed for a fall.

There was the on-field performance itself Sunday, when the Patriots' aging defense huffed and puffed to hold the Giants to 17 points, and yet wound up as 17-14 losers.

The Patriots couldn't contain the rush of Justin Tuck and pals, and they couldn't pick up the occasional blitz by linebacker Kawika Mitchell. That left Brady to throw quick and underneath to Wes Welker, rather than hurting the Giants downfield to Randy Moss.

The Patriots were able to bring in Moss on the cheap because he so badly wanted to get out of Oakland and have a renewed chance to win. Now, he's a free agent coming off a 23-touchdown season and wants to get paid.

Moss or not, it's on defense -- Belichick's former area of expertise -- where the issues are serious. Samuel wants out as a free agent. Rodney Harrison and Junior Seau are done. Tedy Bruschi was trampled by the Giants' running backs. The highly paid Richard Seymour was maybe the sixth-best defensive lineman on the field for the two teams Sunday.

The defensive flaws showed Sunday, as they had through the final weeks of the regular season. It could've been a more comfortable victory if Eli Manning had shown more composure in a first half the Giants dominated and still trailed 7-3.

And then there's the big issue with the Patriots: The strong odds they won't have Belichick on the sideline this fall.

Commissioner Roger Goodell allowed Beli- chick to skate on "Spygate" for 2007, probably because of the league's fondness for Kraft.

You could tell at this Super Bowl that Goodell is highly agitated over this -- both by the new cheating allegations and Belichick's never-ending arrogance on the issue.

Goodell plans to meet with Matt Walsh, a former Patriots employee, to find out if he has evidence of further taping of opponents. If Walsh does, Belichick is going down for a year.

And let's face it: No one who has observed Belichick can seriously believe that surreptitiously videotaping the Jets was less than part of the routine for this smug, defiant coach.

Get 'em, Roger. It will be fun.

Patrick Reusse can be heard weekdays on AM-1500 at 6:45 and 7:45 a.m. and 4:40 p.m. • preusse@startribune.com