Star Tribune staff football picks, state tournament semifinals

The massive lead staff writer Jim Paulsen (51-11) built over David La Vaque (38-24) means the only real drama remains on the field. And what a field. The state semifinals bring the first high school football games to U.S. Bank Stadium.

Jim says: Blaine gave Totino-Grace fits during the regular season, outplaying the Eagles for much of the game but ultimately being done in by turnovers and critical mistakes in a 21-14 loss. Normally, I'd think Blaine could build on the confidence gained in that game, but the Totino-Grace team I saw rout Lakeville North looked close to unbeatable.

Pick: Totino-Grace 33, Blaine 21

David says: Totino-Grace lost in the semifinals last season to Osseo, making the previous week's huge upset of Eden Prairie a footnote rather than a huge step toward a historic title. In fairness, Totino-Grace lost key linebacker Charlie Waters to an injury in practice before playing Osseo. You get the feeling even that wouldn't stop these Eagles.

Pick: Totino-Grace 28, Blaine 10

Jim says: For years Marshall put up gaudy records in the Southwest Conference — made up largely of Class 2A and 3A teams — only to get exposed in the postseason by teams from stronger leagues. This is not one of those Marshall teams. These Tigers, led by future Gophers' lineman Blaise Andries, RB Jefferson Lee V and QB Trey Lance, have a legitimate bite.

Pick: Marshall 41, Benilde-St. Margaret's 26

Pick: Benilde-St. Margaret's 35, Marshall 28

Jim says: Both teams have experienced, balanced offenses led by veteran quarterbacks — Jeff Lewis for Maple River, Reese Jansen for Eden Valley-Watkins — and stubborn defenses. Eden Valley-Watkins' offense is more explosive, however, and that matters on the fast U.S. Bank Stadium turf.

Pick: Eden Valley-Watkins 24, Maple River 14

David says: More explosive offense, maybe. But not necessarily more effective. Maple River's versatile offense can run and throw the ball and set school records for points scored and yards gained. Lewis has thrown for more than 1,200 yards while Lincoln Arndt has rushed for more than 1,400 yards.

Pick: Maple River 27, Eden Valley-Watkins 21

Pick: Cromwell-Wright 30, Cleveland 20

David says: A passing team finally moves indoors and you're forecasting a loss? A more likely scenario: Kopet comes out slinging, Cromwell-Wright gives up its first points in the first quarter this season, and the Cardinals' three-headed running attack fails to keep pace.