Souhan: Postseason rewards brains over bucks

When the Star Tribune ran a story on Monday detailing the Twins' plans to avoid big-ticket free agents this winter, the response was furious and predictable.

The Twins are cheap. The Twins are misguided.

Even if both sentiments are true, they have nothing to do with winning in Major League Baseball in this century.

Baseball is no longer about the size of your wallet. It's all about the size of your brain.

Winning in modern baseball is an intelligence test that the Twins failed for a handful of years, leaving them without starting pitching and power.

That wasn't the result of cheapness. It was the result of bad decisions.

Look around baseball and you will see a postseason without the Yankees and Red Sox and stocked with organizations that have built winners with their farm systems and astute trades.

Fact: Most big-money free-agent signings are considered failures within two years of the transaction. Of the 11 biggest contracts in baseball history (I cut it off at 11 because the next three biggest were signed in 2013 and shouldn't yet be judged), perhaps only two have been justified. Miguel Cabrera is one of the best hitters of his generation — and he was signed not on the open market, but by the team for which he had already performed well. Clayton Kershaw is a phenomenal pitcher — although he has not brought his team postseason success. The other nine (including Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Joe Mauer) have been mistakes. The largest free-agent contract awarded in Twins history went to Ricky Nolasco, another major mistake.

Fact: The best and most-admired organizations in baseball today are the St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles, with the Kansas City Royals rising. All are admired because of strong farm systems and stable front offices, not because of spending.

Fact: Even intelligent franchises regret spending big money in free agency. The Royals made Gil Meche the highest-paid free-agent signee in their history, and he could not help them to a postseason. The Giants spent $126 million on Barry Zito, and have paid Tim Lincecum $57 million the past three years to be one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and will pay him $18 million next year despite his collapse. Those expenditures were silly, but didn't destroy the Giants because of their pitching depth.

You can look around baseball to find proof that payroll size and free-agency aggressiveness have nothing to do with success. Or you can look at Twins history.

The best two free-agent signings in franchise history were Jack Morris and Chili Davis, who helped them win the 1991 World Series. Both were cheap, and both were signed only after more-expensive options (such as Mike Boddicker and Kirk Gibson) snubbed the Twins and signed elsewhere.

Payroll size isn't an indicator of success now, and it wasn't when the Twins were considered a model franchise.

The 2006 Twins were the most talented team in the past 20 years of franchise history. That team ranked 21st in payroll, and might have won it all if Francisco Liriano hadn't injured his elbow.

The 2002 Twins were the only Twins team to win a postseason series in the past 23 years. That team ranked 29th in payroll.

The four remaining teams in this year's playoffs ranked sixth, 13th, 14th and 18th in payroll, and the Giants ranked sixth mostly because they're overpaying Lincecum. If they hadn't signed Lincecum, no team with a top-nine payroll would still be alive.

If you want to believe that buying expensive free agents equals winning, make sure not to watch the rest of the postseason, and remember, if you want to find out if someone is a witch, drown them.