Souhan: Changing Vikings' coaches isn't enough change

Do you still think it was all Leslie Frazier's fault?

Are you sure?

Today, the Vikings will play in Tampa, giving members of their organization a chance to bump into Frazier, the Buccaneers defensive coordinator, and offer him insincere sentiments.

Oh, Vikings brass had facts on their side when they fired Frazier, whose record as a head coach is 21-32-1. Few survive that record regardless of the circumstances.

But if the Vikings fired him thinking that his removal would solve all of their problems, that he was holding back a winning team, they weren't and aren't realists.

Since Zygi Wilf fired Mike Tice in 2005, then raised the payroll and championship expectations, the Vikings have had three winning seasons. Three.

In 2008, after trading for star defensive end Jared Allen, they went 10-6.

In 2012, with Adrian Peterson rushing for 2,097 yards, they went 10-6.

Those three teams had only a few important things in common: Peterson, Allen, defensive tackle Kevin Williams — and the presence of Frazier, who was the Vikings defensive coordinator before taking over as head coach during the 2010 season.

Another way to look at the past nine seasons: The Vikings have had winning records only when something remarkable, even miraculous, has occurred: A blockbuster trade for Allen that turned out even better than could have been expected; the bizarre and successful courtship of one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time; and Peterson defying physiology and modern football convention by dragging a team into the playoffs with his legs.

When not blessed with such a miracle, the Vikings have been no better than mediocre, and sometimes worse.

The head coach is always held responsible when his team loses. That doesn't mean that firing the coach will change the team's course, at least not immediately.

Everyone agreed that Childress had to go when the team collapsed during the 2010 season. The next season, after players raved about Frazier's human touch, the Vikings finished 3-13.

Few argued when Frazier was fired, and players raved about Mike Zimmer's tough love and expertise, and the public envisioned a new, expanded role for Cordarrelle Patterson, and now this supposedly well-coached team is 2-5, having executed a fourth-quarter collapse that paid homage to the 2013 season.

Does anybody else notice a trend?

Analyzing Frazier's tenure in fresh light, the question isn't how he managed to lose so many games but how in the name of Bud Grant he fireman-carried that 2012 squad into the playoffs.

During Wilf's tenure, the Vikings have produced three exceptional coaching achievements:

2. Bevell coaxing a career season out of a previously retired Favre in 2009.

3. Frazier producing four straight clutch victories at the end of the 2012 season with Christian Ponder as his quarterback.

Losing hasn't been an aberration for the Purple. Those four games represent the aberration.

If not for Frazier's work in 2012, the Vikings would be facing a fifth straight losing season.

This isn't an attempt to cleanse Frazier of blame, or diminish Zimmer's promise.

Bill Belichick was a once-fired loser until he found Tom Brady. Pete Carroll might have been fired for a third time if the Seahawks hadn't drafted Russell Wilson and he had been forced to depend on Matt Flynn. Having coached two highly drafted quarterbacks who have struggled, Rex Ryan, considered an exceptional defensive coach, will probably be fired. Embattled Jason Garrett, given a blue-chip offensive line and a highly paid offensive coordinator to go with a star quarterback and receiver, might be this season's Coach of the Year.

Frazier wasn't the cause of the Vikings' problems, and Zimmer won't fix those problems with some secret coaching incantation.

Even if he does good work, Zimmer will need a productive quarterback, healthy stars and a little luck, just like his predecessors.