Some in Iowa saw the caucus debacle coming

DES MOINES – Sean Bagniewski had seen the problems coming.

It wasn't so much that the new app that the Iowa Democratic Party had planned to use to report its caucus results didn't work. It was that people were struggling to even log in or download it in the first place. After all, there had never been any app-specific training for this many precinct chairs.

So last Thursday, Bagniewski, chairman of the Democratic Party in Polk County, Iowa's most populous, decided to scrap the app entirely, instructing his precinct chairs to simply call in the caucus results as they had always done.

The only problem was, when the time came during Monday's caucuses, those precinct chairs could not connect with party leaders via phone. Bagniewski instructed his executive director to take pictures of the results with her smartphone and drive over to the Iowa Democratic Party headquarters to deliver them in person. She was turned away without explanation, he said.

"I don't even know if they know what they don't know," Bagniewski said of the state party shortly before 2 a.m. Tuesday.

It was a surreal opening act for the 2020 campaign that included unexplained "inconsistencies" in results that were not released to the public, heated conference calls with campaigns that were hung up on by the state party, firm denials of any kind of hacking and a presidential primary left in a strange state of almost suspended animation.

"A systemwide disaster," said Derek Eadon, a former Iowa Democratic Party chairman.

"Any campaign saying they won or putting out incomplete numbers is contributing to the chaos and misinformation," Joe Rospars, chief strategist for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, scolded on Twitter. Two tweets and one minute earlier, he had written, "It's a very close race among the top three candidates (Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg) and Biden came a distant fourth."

With no actual results, the only clear loser was Iowa and its increasingly precarious caucuses. For the third consecutive presidential cycle, the results here are riddled with questions, if not doubt. First it was the Republicans, when Mitt Romney was initially declared the winner in 2012 before that was later reversed, and then the Democrats suffered when a virtual tie between Hillary Clinton and Sanders in 2016 set off a number of rule changes that culminated in the 2020 debacle.

The evening had begun well enough. Iowa Democrats said turnout was strong and the caucuses themselves — held across more than 1,600 precincts from the Missouri River to the Mississippi River — had mostly proceeded smoothly. For the first time, there would be not just one result recorded but three: the initial alignment of caucusgoers, the realignment of those who were with candidates below 15% support, and then the final delegates won at each site.

The added detail was the result of complaints from four years ago about the opaqueness of Sanders' narrow loss in the Iowa delegate chase to Clinton.

Some precinct leaders said they had filed their results Monday with little struggle. Jerry Depew, the county chair in rural Pocahontas, said he had called in his results after a five-minute hold, at 8:05 p.m.

"The app wasn't included in the chair training that everyone was required to take," said Zach Simonson, the Democratic Party chair in Wapello County.

"When you have an app that you're sending out to 1,700 people and many of them might be newer to apps and that kind of stuff, it might have been worth doing a couple months' worth of testing," said Bagniewski, the Polk County chairman.

But those delays and confusion did not explain why the state party had released zero results — including from the precincts that had successfully filed their results either via phone or the app. The party said at first that it was conducting "quality control" efforts.

At 10:26 p.m., the Iowa Democratic Party issued a longer statement.

"We found inconsistencies in the reporting of three sets of results," it said. "This is simply a reporting issue, the app did not go down and this is not a hack or an intrusion. The underlying data and paper trail is sound and will simply take time to further report the results."