Should Jake Odorizzi second-guess decision to return to Twins on one-year-deal?

Starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi surprised people last week by accepting a one-year, $17.8 million qualifying offer from the Twins instead of testing free agency. But given the nature of baseball's economic structure, was it really that unexpected?

First take: Michael Rand

We can view this as Odorizzi betting on himself, which he is, to a degree. And we can view this as a win-win for Odorizzi and the Twins, since he's getting a big raise and they are guaranteed to keep the top of their rotation intact.

More than anything, though, I think it's an indictment of baseball's economic system. If not for the draft-pick penalty attached to signing a player who was given a qualifying offer, Odorizzi almost certainly would have opted for free agency.

But it's still a bad system.

Phil Miller: You might say it's a bad system. Jake Odorizzi might say it's a bad system. But I doubt that Rob Manfred or Jim Pohlad or any of baseball's other billionaire owners would say it's a bad system.

It's pretty simple: What is the goal of a structure that exacts a penalty from teams for lavishing money on players? It's to suppress the amount of money they receive. Baseball has been unable to force a salary cap system on its sport — that's what the 1994-95 strike was about — but the owners have managed to add a brake to the prices of the best players by penalizing teams for signing them.

Still, I was shocked that Odorizzi took the offer, for this reason: Even with the draft-pick penalty attached, he figured to receive offers in the three-year range.

Rand: I actually think this is smart business by Odorizzi. If he had taken a three-year, $45 million deal now (hypothetically), what would his next contract have been? I'm guessing it wouldn't have been for $17.8 million a year, which he'll make this year.

But I think he has a good chance to get at least that much on a three-year deal as a free agent next offseason — turning this into, for practical purposes, a good gamble on four years for $60 million-plus over the next four seasons.

This is his best chance to beat the system designed to reward the billionaires.

Miller: That's true, and banking the second-highest salary in Twins history, even for only one year, is a pretty nice safety net should the unthinkable happen. And Odorizzi already has earned more than $21 million in his career, so we're already talking about unimaginable wealth for 99.99% of us.