So far so good.
After warning that much of Minnesota could face historic flooding this spring, meteorologists now are relishing a "pretty much ideal melt," with neither rain nor sleet nor snow on the horizon to dampen that picture.
Warm days, cool nights and little to no precipitation have led to a gradual thaw across much of southern and central Minnesota, keeping floodwaters along the Minnesota and Mississippi rivers from overwhelming adjacent towns.
The crest is expected to begin moving downstream along the Minnesota River in the next several days with water levels dropping in its backwash, said Chris O'Brien, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) Twin Cities office in Chanhassen. He cautioned that things could change abruptly if a big storm materializes because the ground is so saturated that it would be unable to absorb a fresh downpour.
"Any precipitation event will put us back into flood territory for the next month and a half or so," O'Brien said.
For now, however, the only trouble seems to be coming from ice dams forming on smaller rivers and streams, and localized flooding caused by clogged drainage systems.
The Mississippi River could crest in St. Paul perhaps as soon as Thursday, O'Brien said Monday, adding that the water would remain high for several days after that. The Weather Service is predicting a crest of about 20 feet, well below the record 26.01 feet set in 1965.
St. Paul has closed Harriet Island Regional Park due to flooding, as well as Water Street, which skirts the Mississippi River across from the city's downtown. Shepherd and Warner roads also are closed in places along the river.