Amid a sour mood for incumbents nationally, new problems have surfaced for Democrats in southern Minnesota's First Congressional District.

A KAAL-TV ABC 6 NEWS/Survey USA poll shows a closer race than anyone expected for two-term Rep. Tim Walz. The poll of likely voters shows him leading GOP challenger Randy Demmer by a 47% to 42% margin. This is the first independent glimpse the public has had into the race, and it shows a sharp drop from the 53% of the vote Walz received when he was first elected in 2006 amid a Democratic wave. (He was reelected in 2008 with more than 62 percent of the vote). It also comes on the heels of internal GOP polling in northeastern Minnesota that shows Republican challenger Chip Cravaack may be within striking distance of DFL lion Jim Oberstar, the Iron Range Democrat who chairs the House Transportation Committee. One bright spot for Walz: Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) Friday night show the Mankato DFLer with a commanding lead over Demmer in the money chase. Walz raised $407,000 between July and September, compared to Demmer's $183,000. That leaves the incumbent sitting on a war chest of $814,000 for the remaining weeks of the election, compared to $232,000 in the bank for Demmer. Still, the poll is sobering news for Walz, a Democrat in an independent-minded district that went for Obama in 2008 but skews slightly Republican. Said Walz campaign spokeswoman Sara Severs: "Tim is focused on working hard and this campaign doesn't ever take anything for granted." The poll has a margin of error of 4.1%. One special caveat: The poll includes "likely voters" who do not regularly vote but who say they are "uniquely motivated" to vote this year. Under current circumstances, these are people who will vote Republican. Other polls don't count these folks, since they're uncertain "likely" voters. SurveyUSA says if these respondents are excluded, Walz's lead doubles from 5 points to 10 points. See their explanation here. The poll, released Friday evening, also shows Independence Party candidate Steven Wilson, a Rochester Tea Party activist, getting 4%. Lars Johnson, running without a party affiliation, received 2%. Five percent of respondents said they were still undecided.

(Notes on latest FEC filings Friday night: Cravaack, though said to be a comer, raised some $158,000 in the last quarter, compared to Oberstar's $232,000. Oberstar, like Walz, goes into the last two weeks with a ton more dough than his opponent. Oberstar has more than a half mil in the bank; Cravaack, $132,297 cash on hand.

And in 3rd District news, incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen posted $432,000 in contributions between July and September, compared to just under $200,000 for DFL challenger Jim Meffert. Paulsen sits atop a reserve of more than $1 million. Meffert, the guy nobody had heard of 'till Paulsen's attack ads heralded his presence in the race, has about $126,000 in the bank.

Finally, last, and maybe least, Second District DFL challenger Shelley Madore was indeed last among U.S. House hopefuls in Minnesota to file her FEC numbers -- sometime around midnight (after Hot Dish retired for the night). One wonders, since she didn't have a lot of numbers to add up. She reported a paltry $25,381 take for the quarter, about a tenth of the $259,213 for Republican incumbent John Kline. Kline, in line to win a committee gavel if the GOP takes over the U.S. House, has $567,000 in the bank. Madore has $13,676).