
Welcome to the Thursday edition of The Cooler. There is a lot of stuff to get to, so let's get started:
*We're one week from the NBA Draft, and you will no doubt see mock drafts touted even more in the next seven days than they have been already. MOCK DRAFT VERSION 23! An update of the No. 48 overall pick!
OK, but seriously mock drafts are somewhat useful, up to a point. I think there are diminishing returns the further you get from the No. 1 overall pick because the variables increase, but there is still value, if you are interested in prediction, at aggregating the mocks/guesses/insights from several good sources.
After reading several books on sociology, economic theory and prediction in the last couple of years, one point that is consistently reinforced is that an aggregation of several pieces of information tends to be more reliable than a single piece.
It helps smooth out bias — both from the predictor and the reader — and provides a better general idea of what will happen. You see it in political polling, and it applies to mock drafts as well.
OK, you didn't come here for a VERY basic explanation of that principle. You came for what the mocks are telling us about the Timberwolves and what they might do with the No. 20 overall pick.
HoopsHype does a good job of this, considering six top mocks. The AGGREGATE says Boise State guard Chandler Hutchison is the most likely pick at No. 20, even though not a single one of the six mocks has him pegged to go to the Wolves. A lot of mocks have him going right around that spot.
Only one player shows up going to the Wolves in more than one mock: Ohio State's Keita Bates-Diop, tabbed by ESPN and The Athletic as likely picks by Minnesota.