Decertification of the NFL Players Association would not prevent a work stoppage when the current collective bargaining agreement expires on Thursday.

So says Gary Roberts, one of the nation's leading experts in sports antitrust and labor issues.

"If the players union decertifies, the term 'lockout' no longer applies," said Roberts, dean of Indiana University School of Law in Indianapolis. "You need a union to have a lockout. However, the only way for the owners to then avoid an antitrust judgment in court, to avoid being accused of conspiring to restrain trade by how they run their business, is to not run their business."

According to ESPN, the NFLPA will decertify if, as expected, there is no significant progress toward a new CBA before Thursday's deadline. Once the deadline passes, the NFLPA would have to wait six months to decertify.

Decertification would allow the players to seek injunctive relief against a lockout and begin antitrust proceedings against the owners in front of U.S. District Court Judge David Doty in Minneapolis. Doty has had jurisdiction over such matters since the current CBA was reached in 1993.

Doty already has a significant role in the dispute, deciding whether owners will be able to access $4 billion from their television contracts. The union appealed to Doty when special master Stephen Burbank denied its request to place the money in escrow until there is a new CBA. Doty ruled Tuesday that Burbank made errors and has called for a hearing to determine damages paid to the union and the possibility of preventing the NFL from accessing the $4 billion during a work stoppage.

No slam dunk

Roberts said decertification isn't a "slam dunk." He said owners will turn to the National Labor Relations Board to challenge union's move as a ploy to skirt the law with the intent to recertify, as it did when it turned to the courts to win free agency in the early 1990s. The owners already filed an unfair labor practice charge with the NLRB, arguing the union has intended to decertify rather than negotiate.

Talks went late Tuesday night and were scheduled to continue Wednesday. NFL owners are expected to meet later Wednesday and Thursday in Chantilly, Va. An extension of Thursday's deadline is possible, but unlikely considering neither side has budged. After the seventh day of federal mediation last week, Cohen said the two sides still had "very strong differences" on the "all-important core issues."

The main issue is how to divide $9 billion in annual revenue. The players now get 59.5 percent after the owners take $1 billion of the top for expenses. The owners now want to take $2 billion off the top. The sides also are at odds when it comes to a rookie wage scale, benefits for retired players and expansion of the regular season from 16 to 18 games.

By decertifying, the union hopes to continue the status quo by making the owners believe a shutdown would constitute a restraint of trade and result in an antitrust judgment. But Roberts doesn't see how the owners would have any choice but to shut down.

"By definition, the owners have to have in place all kinds of rules that are uniform across the league," Roberts said. "The players are going to say that's a conspiracy to restrain trade. That's an agreement among 32 separate businessmen to restrain trade. So the only way to avoid that is to simply not do any business. Shut it down altogether."

Regular season at risk?

Roberts doesn't believe either side will risk losing regular-season games this season. However, the one scenario in which he said that could happen is if the two sides end up digging in before Doty.

"It would take years for an antitrust judgment to come down the pike," Roberts said. "And the owners are not going to operate the league with an antitrust judgment hanging over their heads. I don't think either side is going to sit around paying lawyers and litigating lawsuits for years while the league is shut down."

The only thing certain at this point is, come Thursday night, the NFL's streak of 24 years without a work stoppage will come to an end.