It's crazy to think that a 3-4 defensive end on a 6-6 team is challenging Aaron Rodgers for this year's Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player Award.

But, as Vikings linebacker Jasper Brinkley put it this week, "J.J. Watt is that good."

As one of 50 people who have a vote, it's hard to imagine not writing down Rodgers' name. But Watt sure is making the job tougher by playing the 3-4 end position at an unprecedented level while dabbling as Houston's touchdown pass-catching tight end.

"I like both of them," Brinkley said. "It's hard to pick between them. Aaron is Aaron. But I've not seen a defensive guy win it in my era. So it would be nice to see that."

The Associated Press has voted on a Most Valuable Player or an equivalent term since 1957. Vikings defensive tackle Alan Page (1971) and Giants outside linebacker Lawrence Taylor (1986) are the only defenders to win the award.

Thirty-seven quarterbacks have won the award, including Peyton Manning, who extended his record win total to five a year ago. Other winners include 18 running backs and kicker Mark Moseley (1982). Other Vikings to win besides Page were Fran Tarkenton (1975) and Adrian Peterson (2012).

"I hate to say it as an offensive guy, but J.J. Watt definitely has earned legitimate MVP talk," Vikings receiver Jarius Wright said. "He's helping Houston on both sides of the ball, and I think he's changing the game."

Rodgers remains the favorite. In fact, he might be playing even better than he did in 2011, when he won the award. The Packers are 9-3 with Rodgers completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,325 yards, 32 touchdowns and just three interceptions. In November, he threw seven touchdown passes and no interceptions as the Packers went 4-0 with a franchise-record, back-to-back stretch of 50-point games.

Meanwhile, as dominant as he is, Watt's Texans are 6-6 and have beaten only two teams that currently have a winning record. Houston also is 8-20 with Watt since the start of last season.

But Sunday's 45-21 victory over the Titans was a prime example of how Watt can take over a game. He had two sacks, a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and a 1-yard touchdown catch, his third in three catches as a tight end this season.

Sunday's touchdown was Watt's fifth of the season. He also has 11 ½ sacks, eight pass deflections, three forced fumbles, five fumble recoveries and a blocked kick.

Also, according to Pro Football Focus, Watt has 33 quarterback hits and 35 quarterback hurries. Those are staggering numbers for a 3-4 end, which doesn't have the edge-rushing advantages of a 4-3 end or a 3-4 outside linebacker.

Watt leads 3-4 defensive ends in sacks by 4½, quarterback hits by 23 and hurries by eight. Among the more traditional pass rushers at the 4-3 end position, Chicago's Jared Allen led the way with 17 quarterback hits — 16 fewer than Watt — through 12 games.

Meanwhile, the top quarterback hit total for a 3-4 outside linebacker was 15 by the Colts' Erik Walden.

"If you watch him play, Watt definitely changes the game," Brinkley said. "He disrupts a lot of plays. When he gets going, he can be the difference between winning the game and losing the game. I mean, what else is there to say? That's pretty valuable to me."

NFL CHATTER

The Vikings are the only team in the NFL that doesn't have a victory against a team that currently has a .500 record or better.

Really.

Yes, even the one-win Raiders have done it. Ditto for the two-win Titans, Jets, Jaguars and Buccaneers.

Yep. Same goes for the three-win Redskins, Panthers and Giants.

The Bucs and Jets both beat the Steelers, while the Titans and Raiders both beat the Chiefs. The Panthers beat the Lions, the Redskins beat the Cowboys, the Jaguars beat the Browns and the Giants beat the Texans.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are 0-5 against the Packers, Patriots, Lions and Bills. But at least they are 5-2 against teams with a losing record.

Next up is Sunday's home game against a 2-10 Jets team whose road résumé includes an 0-5 record and a league-worst minus-89-point differential. The only other teams that haven't won on the road are Oakland and Jacksonville.

It's hard to get a feel for which Jets team the Vikings will face. Will it be the blasé squad that lost to the Bills by 35 points in Detroit two weeks ago? Or will it be the determined group that beat the Steelers three weeks ago and pounded out 277 yards in a three-point loss to the Dolphins on Monday?

Coach Rex Ryan is highly unlikely to survive the meltdown season and a fourth consecutive year without a playoff berth. But he could make Sunday uncomfortable for a Vikings team that ranks 24th in run defense and allowed the Panthers to rush for 178 yards last week.

THIRD-AND-2

Three observations

• Every team in the NFC West is over .500 in its past five games. No other division can say that.

• The Denver defense actually ranks higher (third) than its offense (fifth). However, the Broncos rank fifth in scoring and 17th in points allowed.

• The Packers have thrown four interceptions while intercepting 15 passes. The plus-11 ratio leads the league by four.

Two predictions

• You thought things were uncomfortable for Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco? Now add a loss to Oakland.

• Kyle Orton will hang with Peyton Manning until throwing a late interception.

FOCUS ON FIVE STORY LINES

1 Johnny Football won't start: Indianapolis at Cleveland

Brian Hoyer remains the starting quarterback for the Browns, a team he has in the playoff hunt at 7-5. With fans clamoring for Johnny Manziel, it will be interesting to see what happens if the Colts jump off to a big lead.

2 Playoff battles heat up: Baltimore at Miami

The Dolphins would get the final AFC playoff berth if the season ended today (as they say), but there is a real fight for playoff spots down the stretch. The Ravens have the same record (7-5) as the Fish headed into this game.

3 Are Rams getting last laugh? St. Louis at Washington

The Redskins mortgaged the farm three years ago to get QB Robert Griffin III (pictured), swapping high draft choices to the Rams. Now Griffin is officially benched and has an uncertain future as the young Rams continue to show great promise. Once in a while.

4 The coastal powers meet: New England at San Diego

The Pats hope to rebound from their loss in Green Bay and the Chargers want to reassert themselves.

5 Seahawks face big challenge Seattle at Philadelphia

The Seahawks are starting to feel their oats, but can they continue that in Philadelphia, against one of the league's most powerful teams?

NFL PICKS

We've reached December, a time for goodwill, holiday cheer and NFL followers who yammer on about "MUST-WIN!" games that usually aren't and situations that would happen "IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY," which it never does. The Cowboys "MUST WIN!" The Bears "MUST WIN!" The Jets "MUST WIN!"

OK, strike that last one. But you get the idea.

Here are some "MUST!!" situations and things that would happen "IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY" that we'll keep an eye on for Week 14:

NYJ +6 at MIN

Vikings 27, Jets 21

The Vikings "MUST!!" be on the lookout for weights thrown by Percy Harvin.

BAL +2½ at MIA

Dolphins by 6

The Dolphins and Ravens "MUST!!" win. Or they can "WAIT!!" until Roger Goodell expands the playoffs to everyone with a pulse.

PIT +3 at CIN

Bengals by 7

Win or lose, Ben Roethlisberger "MUST!!" keep the fantasy football nerds feeling like they're this close to being a real GM.

HOU -6 at JAX

Texans by 7

The "J.J. Watt 4 MVP" club "MUST!!" send thank-you notes to Tennessee and Jacksonville.

NYG pick at TEN

Giants by 3

Eli Manning "MUST!!" find a way to win a third Super Bowl because people have stopped putting him in the Hall of Fame for his second one.

CAR +10 at NO

Saints by 7

The Saints "MUST!!" lose fewer times than Atlanta.

TB +10 at DET

Lions by 3

If the season ended today, Bucs fans would argue that they saw it coming when Atlanta went up 56-0 a couple of months ago.

STL -3 at WAS

Rams by 7

If the season ended today, the Redskins would be happy, RG III would be happier and the Rams would be like, "Any time you guys want to trade draft picks, you got our number."

BUF +10 at DEN

Broncos by 3

Kyle Orton "MUST!!" pinch himself every day.

KC +1 at ARZ

Chiefs by 3

The Cardinals "MUST!!" have pinched themselves and woken next to Drew Stanton.

SF -8 at OAK

Raiders by 3

Ohio State fans "MUST!!" pray that Jim Harbaugh isn't traded to Michigan.

SEA +1 at PHI

Seahawks by 3

Marshawn Lynch "MUST" talk to reporters more often so that his words can return to having absolutely no value.

NE -3½ at SD

Patriots by 6

If the season ended today, Bill Belichick would be hoping someone not named Aaron wins the NFC.

ATL +12½ at GB

Packers by 10

If the season ended today, the Falcons wouldn't have to spend three hours running two steps behind Jordy Nelson.

UPSET SPECIAL

IND -3½ at CLE

Browns by 3

The Browns "MUST!!" reconsider ruining the launch date of ESPN XL's "All-Johnny Network."

Record

Last week/overall: 7-6/ 105-70-1

vs. spread: 6-7/ 87-89

Vikings picks: 9-3

Upset special picks: 4-9

Mark Craig • mcraig@startribune.com