Every Tuesday morning, we take a look at where the Vikings would pick in the 2014 NFL Draft if the season ended today.
Note: The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule where the team with the worst strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and gets a better pick. Strength of schedule is based off the win percentage of a team’s opponents, so there’s two ways to calculate it during the season. One would be to factor in a team’s entire 16-game schedule, or the other method would be to tally the records of games already played (the method used in this blog). At the end of the year, both methods will result in the same SOS percentage.
The day is drawing near. We will know where the Vikings will select in the 2014 NFL Draft on Sunday. First, we look at how the top 10 looks with a game remaining.
The Vikings lost but so did the other seven teams ahead of them. Here’s how the draft order looks right now (records and strength of schedule, if necessary, in parentheses):
1. Texans (2-13)
2. Rams [via Redskins] (3-12)
3. Jaguars (4-11) (.493)
4. Raiders (4-11) (.498)
5. Browns (4-11) (.520)
6. Falcons (4-11) (.540)
7. Bucs (4-11) (.569)
8. Vikings (4-10-1)
9. Bills (6-9) (.507)
10. Titans (6-9) (.529)
With wins by the Giants, Bills and Titans, the Vikings in a worst-case scenario will select eighth. They’d lock that spot with a win over the Lions.
The Vikings won’t have a shot at the first or second overall pick, which will come down to either the Texans or the Rams. The third selection would be the best-case scenario, but the Vikings would need for five 4-11 teams to win with a loss to the Lions. They’re the only team in the bunch playing a game without playoff implications however (home team on right side).
Bucs vs. Saints
Browns vs. Steelers
Jaguars vs. Colts
Broncos vs. Raiders
Panthers vs. Falcons
The most realistic scenario seems to be a Vikings win and the eighth pick, which would still be a nice selection obviously.
And if the Vikings would’ve lost to the Packers rather than tie, they’d be tied with the Browns for the fifth spot (.520 strength of schedule) and would come down to the final tiebreaker method: a coin flip.