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New data ranks Minnesota last in Midwest in private sector job creation

New data paints a less promising picture of Minnesota's job market. The state's economy is healthy, but private sector job creation lagged from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014.

September 27, 2014 at 2:42AM
In this June 23, 2014 photo, job seekers wait in line to meet with recruiters during a job fair in Philadelphia. The government issues the July jobs report on Friday, Aug. 1, 2014. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
New data from the U.S. government shows a less healthy view of Minnesota's employment situation than monthly state numbers do. (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its most recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, the higher-quality but time-delayed job statistics that go deep into the state and county level.

The numbers, now available through the first quarter of 2014, paint a less promising picture of job growth in Minnesota last year than we've been seeing in the monthly job numbers.

According to the new data, which everyone agrees is more reliable than the monthly numbers, Minnesota ranked 41st in the nation in private sector job growth from March 2013 to March 2014, with a growth rate of 0.8 percent.

That ranks last in the Midwest. Behind Michigan, behind Iowa, behind Illinois, and, unfortunately, behind Wisconsin.

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

As you can see, if you look at the data going back two or three or five years, Minnesota's performance starts to look better. But growth has been slowing down.

If you look closely at this chart, you can see Minnesota's maroon line leveling off in the most recent 12-month period.

(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

John Schmid at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported on this data a week ago, pointing out that Wisconsin ranked 33rd in the nation, but ahead of Minnesota and Illinois.

The Journal-Sentinel does not report the monthly numbers without issuing gigantic caveats, and this is a good example of why. The new quarterly data doesn't square with the monthly job figures that have been coming out all year, which are drawn from the Current Employment Statistics program. According to that data, Minnesota added 39,800 private sector jobs from March 2013 to March 2014.

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But if we have to choose between the two datasets, the QCEW wins out. It shows that Minnesota only added 19,000 jobs over that period, less than half the number shown in the monthly reports.

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