Low oil prices and a slowdown in China have battered the Canadian economy, with ripple effects for Minnesota exporters.
Canadian GDP shrank in 2014, and Minnesota exports to the state's biggest trade partner fell by 21 percent in the second quarter of this year.
Now Justin Trudeau, the leader of the newly elected Liberal government, hopes to jump-start Canada's economy by spending big on health care and public works, roads and bridges, ports, public transit and border crossings.
Fiscal conservatives may cringe at the thought, but a massive spending program north of the border could be a small boon for Minnesota.
Manufacturers across Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota who build much of the heavy equipment used in Canada would get a boost, and medical device companies might benefit from health spending.
"It might at the margin mean more demand for the things that we sell," said Paul Vaaler, a business law professor at the University of Minnesota.
Trudeau, the photogenic 43-year-old son of the longtime Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, led the Liberal Party in Canada to a surprisingly big victory last week. In addition to his stimulus plans, his economic program could help Minnesota in that he's unlikely to diverge greatly from the defeated Conservatives on either trade or energy policy.
He says it's "important that Canada be part of" the 12-nation Pacific Rim trade deal, and he wants to boost oil and gas exports.
The former schoolteacher has promised to run up a deficit for three years by spending on public works and health care. The proposal was a key way he distinguished himself from Stephen Harper, whose Conservatives wanted to keep the budget balanced.
Companies like Caterpillar, and supply chains that spread into Roseville, Bloomington and Hibbing, have been struggling in the past couple of years for the same reason Canada is struggling: low prices for oil and other commodities.
An additional $60 billion in big Canadian projects over the next ten years — many of them requiring earth-moving equipment — could be a boost for heavy equipment companies in the Midwest, though it won't pull them completely out of their slump.
"Canada spending on infrastructure will help, but it simply won't be enough," said Kwame Webb, an analyst with Morningstar who covers Caterpillar.
Medical device companies might also capitalize on increased federal health care spending in Canada.
"Who would be the potential beneficiaries? It might be some of the med-tech companies here," Vaaler said.
Canada is Minnesota's biggest export market by far, accounting for $5.6 billion of Minnesota's exports last year, about 1.8 percent of the state's economic activity.
Minnesota exports mostly finished manufactured goods to Canada, but most of what Canada exports to Minnesota is energy or agricultural commodities. The energy relationship is crucial — both for power companies in Minnesota and businesses here who are in the oil and gas industry — and it doesn't appear Trudeau will tinker with it.
Manitoba Hydro sells power to Xcel Energy and other power companies, especially in the summer. Flint Hills Resources' oil refinery in Rosemount processes a lot of crude oil from Alberta's controversial oil sands, and such companies as LaValley Industries in Bemidji and Barr Engineering in Minneapolis sell machines and services to oil and gas companies in Canada.
Trudeau has backed the Keystone XL pipeline and wants to boost exports of oil and gas, but he also shows more interest in climate change than Harper and will have a Liberal caucus to hold together. "The liberal party hasn't been in power in Canada for 20 years, and there's going to be some pressure to rethink or change policy," said Bill Blazar, a vice president at the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce.
From a regional strategy perspective, Minnesota's neighbor Manitoba probably loses clout under Trudeau, since the Liberal Party's power base is in the East, Blazar said.
The premier of Manitoba and the governor of Minnesota keep close ties, and the Harper-appointed Canadian ambassador to the United States, Gary Doer, is a former premier of Manitoba. "In subtle ways, that's helpful," Blazar said. New Canadian prime ministers typically appoint their own ambassadors to the United States.
Trudeau will announce his Cabinet on Nov. 4 and his policies will be more clear after he calls Parliament together and makes a speech "from the throne" — something resembling a State of the Union address. The date for that speech is yet to be determined.
Adam Belz • 612-673-4405 Twitter: @adambelz
