Minnesota Wild may have been better off standing pat

When Wild General Manager Paul Fenton embarked on a roster shake-up in the middle of last season, the intent seemed clear on two fronts: 1) See if an injection of new blood would create a better dynamic down the stretch that might propel the team into the playoffs and spark a run; 2) Add a combination of youth and payroll flexibility to pave the way for a bigger shift in direction during the offseason.

Number 1 obviously didn't happen. Number 2 is coming into focus but still in question.

Barring anything dramatic (like, say, a Jason Zucker trade that still hasn't happened amid chatter that has died down), the Wild's offseason activity might be drawing to a close. Sure, Minnesota has a few more notable restricted free agents to sign (Joel Eriksson Ek and Kevin Fiala), but after signing Ryan Donato on Tuesday the others probably aren't far behind.

As such, we are in position to take a look at where the Wild stands with payroll, talent and flexibility in order to judge (at least to this point) the net result of the reshuffling that began in earnest six months ago.

Note: Salaries are yearly cap hits and length of remaining contract includes 2019-20. Estimates for Eriksson Ek and Fiala via Evolving Hockey).

Mikael Granlund ($5.75 million, one year left); Nino Niederreiter ($5.25 million, three years left); Charlie Coyle ($3.2 million, one year left).

Ryan Donato ($1.9 million, two years left); Kevin Fiala (estimated $3.1 million, two years left); Victor Rask ($4 million, three years left); Mats Zuccarello, $6 million, five years left); Ryan Hartman ($1.9 million, two years left).

So: Had the Wild kept the status quo — no trades, no outside free agent signings, keeping Eriksson Ek, they would have been on the hook for about $15.5 million in salary in 2019-20 with Granlund, Nino, Coyle and Ek. That would have diminished to $6.6 million in 2020-21 had they let Coyle and Granlund walk in free agency.

As it stands, if Hartman (a low-leverage signing) and Eriksson Ek are kept out of it, it looks like this:

The Wild will be on the hook for $15 million (estimated) in 2019-20 and 2020-21 for Donato, Fiala, Rask and Zuccarello, with longer-term commitments to Rask and Zuccarello.

It would $14.2 million with the status quo in 2019-20 with Granlund, Coyle and Niederreiter, which is down to just one player (Nino) and $5.25M beyond next year.

I think it's fair to say the Wild would need to get a jump from two out of the three of Donato, Fiala and Rask next season to feel better about their short-term lineup vs. what they would have had by doing nothing.

Framing it that way reinforces the bets Fenton is making on his ability to evaluate talent and try to remake this roster on the fly. Because in terms of cap flexibility, the Wild sure seems to have less of it than when the reshuffling started.