Is it the weather?

Turns out, it’s not too early to start worrying about Minnesota’s clout on the national political scene after the 2020 census.

The election gurus at are studying the national population shifts and projecting Minnesota to be on the losing end of the reapportionment sweepstakes that follow every decennial population count.

Minnesota was on the cusp of going from eight to seven congressional seats the last two times around (2000 and 2010), but managed to hold on. This time, it’s still in danger, though still a close call.

In a way, it’s an old story. Decade by decade, America’s population growth skews South and West. Based on population gains since 2010, RealClearPolitics election analyst Sean Trende forecasts Minnesota to lose one congressional seat, and the Electoral College vote that goes with it. (Currently, Minnesota has 10 Electoral College votes – two for the state’s two senators, and eight for the eight-member congressional delegation).

The big winner? Texas, which has had the nation’s biggest population gain over the past year, putting the Lone Star State on a pace to pick up three congressional seats after 2020.

Trende cautions, naturally, that it’s still early. And in presidential politics, the change wouldn’t be felt until 2024.

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