Minnesota congressional boundaries shift under new redistricting maps

The boundaries of Minnesota's eight congressional districts will shift around the edges for the decade to come under redistricting maps released Tuesday, with the most dramatic geographic changes occurring in two swing districts in the southern half of the state.

But the political dynamics will feel familiar heading into the 2022 midterm elections.

"Swing districts will remain swing districts," said Todd Rapp, a DFL operative who analyzed the new maps. "The good Democratic districts will remain good Democratic districts. The good Republican districts will remain good Republican districts."

The five-judge panel charged with drawing the maps by a Tuesday deadline favored a plan that made the least changes necessary to accommodate the population shifts that took place during the past decade. Redistricting is required once every 10 years to redistribute the state's population as equally as possible between the eight districts and the 201 seats that make up the state Legislature.

Still, some Minnesotans will find themselves in new districts, with different representation in Congress and the Legislature under the redrawn maps. Political operatives in both parties were closely watching changes in the lines around Minnesota's neighboring First and Second congressional districts, which have featured some of the closest margins in the last two election cycles.

The Second District, currently represented by DFL U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, shed Goodhue and Wabasha counties, which become part of southern Minnesota's First District under the new maps. Le Sueur County moved from the First District, represented by GOP U.S. Rep. Jim Hagedorn, into Craig's district.

A spokesman for Hagedorn said that he "looks forward to campaigning for a third term and getting to know the new residents of the district." During the 2020 cycle, Hagedorn won his congressional district by 3 percentage points.

Gregg Peppin, a Republican operative who worked on Hagedorn's past races, said he did not think the new congressional maps "gave one side a strong advantage over the other."

"The judges, to their credit, they looked at Minnesota as a competitive state on the congressional level with four and four — four Republicans, four Democrats — and I think that they probably felt that that was reflective of the voters' will over the last decade and didn't want to upset the apple cart in a major way," Peppin said.

Still, congressional Democrats face a challenging political environment and risk losing control of the U.S. House and Senate in the midterms. The new lines only add to the intense attention Craig's race will get as she tries to maintain control of the seat.

Craig said she will seek a third term this fall.

"While I am, of course, disappointed that the new boundaries do not include all of the cities and towns that I currently represent in Congress, I look forward to being the voice of several new communities across Minnesota," Craig said in a statement.

Republican Tyler Kistner, Craig's only announced challenger to date, indicated he's staying in the race. Tyler Dunn, a spokesman for Kistner's campaign, added in a statement Tuesday that "the new map has the same [party leaning in presidential elections] rating from political handicappers as the old map, and we are confident that Tyler Kistner will win this election in November."

Kistner lost to Craig by about 2 percentage points in 2020.

The metro Third, Fourth and Fifth congressional districts — all represented by Democrats — shrank geographically to accommodate urban population growth. Political analysts say those seats are expected to remain in Democratic hands under the redrawn lines.

Rep. Dean Phillips is among the Democratic lawmakers across the country targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee during the past year. Tuesday's new map included changes to Phillips' suburban Third District, which lost its portion of Carver County and picked up the city of Hopkins in Hennepin County.

Three Republicans filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to mount bids against Phillips before the district's new lines were announced.

"I've loved working with the people and communities I represent in Carver County and will miss them," Phillips said in a statement. "Representation begins with listening, and I cannot wait to meet the people and communities new to the Third District and represent their perspectives and priorities."

Meanwhile, northeastern Minnesota's Eighth Congressional District expanded to account for population declines in many rural counties, shifting westward to include several Native American reservations, while also adding part of northern Washington County on its southern border.

The district, currently represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Pete Stauber, picked up more voters who supported Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race, but political analysts expect the seat to stay in Republican control in the fall election. Minnesota's largely rural Seventh District will continue to cover a large swath of the state's western border.

Technically, it's the Legislature's job to draw new political boundaries each decade, but the divided House and Senate failed to strike a deal by Tuesday's deadline, as they have for the past five decades.

"Simply put, we are not positioned to draw entirely new congressional districts, as the Legislature could choose to do," read the court's brief on the new maps. "Rather, we start with the existing districts, changing them as necessary."

Every state House and Senate seat is on the ballot after a redistricting cycle, meaning control of the Legislature is up for grabs.

The Minnesota Legislature is divided, with Democrats holding a slim majority in the state House while Republicans hold a narrow majority in the Senate. Leaders in both parties were analyzing the data Tuesday to determine what the new lines meant for control of the statehouse.

Dozens of incumbent House and Senate legislators appeared to be paired up in the newly drawn districts. But Senate Redistricting Chair Mark Johnson, R-East Grand Forks, said the maps appeared fair and the route of least change means most Minnesotans will remain in the districts they've lived in for the last decade.

"Constituents who have finally gotten used to what their district boundaries are aren't all of a sudden now thrown into an entirely different numbered district," he said. "I think the court did a fairly good job of that."