WASHINGTON – Minnesota's newest congressman, Republican Tom Emmer, spent February meeting personally with every other freshman Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives. He urged each of them to support trade promotion authority.
Minnesota's longest-serving congressman, Democrat Collin Peterson, fields calls every week from members of President Obama's Cabinet courting his support for trade promotion.
A furious back-channel lobbying effort roils Capitol Hill these days. Ultimately, it seeks to open international markets to U.S. multinational companies, including Minnesota-based 3M, Medtronic, St. Jude Medical, Ecolab and Cargill, through the 11-country Trans Pacific Partnership. But the fate of the nation's most important trade deal since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) rests with passage of trade promotion authority — legislation that allows the Senate and House to set objectives for trade deals, but only allows a yes-or-no vote and no amendments to specific agreements.
"It is impossible to negotiate a serious trade agreement without it," said University of Minnesota trade expert Tim Kehoe, who advised the Mexican secretary of trade during NAFTA. "When you negotiate, you give up things to get things."
Letting House and Senate members renegotiate those promises as part of the approval process, said Kehoe, inevitably leads to district-by-district and state-by-state nitpicking that dooms any deal.
And yet passage of trade promotion — one of the few issues where leaders of the Republican-controlled House and Senate side with the Democratic White House — appears anything but certain. A trade promotion authority bill has yet to be introduced in the House or Senate. Meanwhile, the window of opportunity for a major free-trade agreement closes a little more each day the country advances toward the 2016 presidential and congressional elections.
"The closer to the 2016 elections we get, politicians get more skittish," explained Bryan Riley, senior trade policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. "There are vocal aspects of both parties that don't like trade promotion authority and have the ability to make people nervous."
Nationally, the issue has driven a wedge between Republicans. It has caused many Democrats to fall out with Obama.