Donald Trump wants America to make things. On the campaign trail, he promised to bring iPhone assembly to the U.S. More recently, he has threatened to retaliate against any company that moves jobs offshore.
If he really wants to help his supporters, though, he should think twice about what kinds of jobs to promote.
Trump's generation has watched the factory dwindle to a small sliver of the American economy. Nearly half the private-sector jobs in the 1940s and '50s were in the goods-producing sector. Today fewer than 1 in 6 are.
The service sector has more than made up for the losses. A wealthier, better-educated and older population has allowed professional and business services to flourish, and has boosted demand for various kinds of care and help.
Over the last 20 years, the education and health services sectors have added 9 million jobs, while the manufacturing sector has shrunk by 5 million.
Problem is, the new jobs are in occupations held disproportionately by women. As of 2015, men held just 23 percent of private-sector jobs in education and health services, compared with 73 percent in manufacturing. Lower-skilled men don't seem to want service jobs. As the goods sector has declined, so has the labor-force participation of men without a college degree.
Today only 83 percent of prime-age men with a high school degree or less are employed or actively seeking work. In 1964, 97 percent were.
Those who have adapted by seeking more education have done well. The unemployment rate of college graduates is a mere 2.3 percent, and 94 percent of college-educated prime-age men are in the labor force. They also earn a lot more: The difference between the wages of college and high school graduates has never been larger.