On May 14th, the Twins held a slim 4-3 lead over the Yankees. With the bases loaded in the bottom of the 7th inning, Alex Rodriguez was due to bat. Ron Gardenhire walked to the mound and pointed to the bullpen summoning right-handed reliever Matt Guerrier. Guerrier has been one of the Twins best relievers, one of baseball's best relievers, over the past four seasons. However, coming into the at bat, Rodriguez had been 4-6 with a double and three home runs against Guerrier. Six at bats is a very small sample size, but it certainly was an indicator of what was to come next. On an 0-1 pitch, Rodriguez launch a grand slam into the left centerfield bleachers.
In the world of stats, the term "Small Sample Size" means a lot. Six at bats is far from enough to to determine what would happen over 100 at bats. The playoffs represent the ultimate Small Sample. What means more? What a player does over 162 game schedule, maybe 600 plate appearances, or what happens in a Best of Five or Best of Seven series where a player may get anywhere from 10-20 plate appearances.
I think that the stats from 600 plate appearances always mean more than the stats from 20 plate appearances, and yet, there is no questioning the value of the playoffs. Obviously it is the reason they play the 162 game schedule.
The Twins will again play the Yankees in the ALDS. We can hope that there will not be an important Alex Rodriguez versus Matt Guerrier matchup in a crucial late-inning situation, especially now that he is 5-7 with a double and four home runs in their matchups. What other matchups could be worth watching during this series?
Let's start with Alex Rodriguez. His OPS against left-handed pitchers was nearly .130 points lower than against right-handers. So, maybe it would make sense to have Brian Fuentes pitch against him? However, in his career, A-Rod is 2-4 with two walks and two home runs against Fuentes. The other left-handed option is Jose Mijares who he has never faced. Maybe it'd be best just to leave the starter in. The four pitchers scheduled to start for the Twins have held him to 8-38 overall.
The Twins will face lefty CC Sabathia in Game 1. The Twins regulars have had little success off of him. Michael Cuddyer is 11-56. Joe Mauer is 5-23. Delmon Young is 3-15. Orlando Hudson is 2-9. Jim Thome is just 4-27 against Sabathia. Of course, all four of those hits are home runs. The biggest surprise might be that Alexi Casilla has gone 9-13 with two doubles aginst Sabathia. Is it possible that could lead to a Game 1 start for him?
Andy Pettitte is another tough left-hander with some track record against the Twins. Twins hitters have had a little more success against him. Cuddyer is 8-21 with two doubles and a homer. Joe Mauer is 6-20. Jim Thome has gone 9-35 against Pettitte with two doubles and two home runs. Delmon Young has gone 11-21 (.524) in his career against the veteran lefty.
Here's where we bring up Jason Kubel. There is no hiding that Kubel has struggled against southpaws his whole career. People were disappointed by his performance last year in the ALDS against the Yankees, but consider that in his career (including postseason), he is 0-5 against Sabathia with three strikeouts. Against Andy Pettitte, he is 0-6 with four strikeouts. He doesn't hit lefties well, so it's not a great matchup for Kubel to hit against a couple of the better left-handers. Of course, we can all forgive Kubel for his shortcomings against lefties after his grand slam off of Mariano Rivera in May gave the Twins a win. He is actually 3-9 with that home run. He's also 6-9 with two home runs against Chad Gaudin and 2-3 with a walk against Phil Hughes.