In a sleeper race that's turned into a cage match, the U.S. House race between veteran DFLer Jim Oberstar and GOP upstart Chip Cravaack appears to be a potential tossup.
A new SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota's 8th congressional district for KSTP TV, the first independent poll in the race, shows a 47-46 Oberstar lead, or, in other words, a dead heat. The poll was scheduled to be released on KSTP at 6 p.m. But poll numbers were made available to operatives on both sides earlier in the afternoon. Democrats question the accuracy of the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, saying it consistently overestimates Republican strength. Another KSTP/SurveyUSA poll has the governor's race virtually tied, while other polls, including a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, give DFLer Mark Dayton a lead over Republican Tom Emmer. But either way, this is clearly not good news for Oberstar, an 18-term-incumbent who routinely wins with more than 60 percent of the vote. In an earlier sign of trouble - in a year that already looks to end Democratic control of the U.S. House - an internal GOP poll done by Public Opinion Strategies found Oberstar with a 3-point lead. That poll was done in September. Since then, the once-safe DFL stronghold in northeastern Minnesota has been awash in political ads and outside interest group spending.
