On the NFL: It's a value judgment

Adrian Peterson will win an NFL MVP. It just won't come this season.

His chances most likely were booted away for good last week when he extended his league-high fumble total to eight while the Vikings lost to the Falcons at home with the NFC North title on the line.

Peterson is a great back, but for MVP purposes I'd put him at least second on the list of running backs. I'd list Carolina's DeAngelo Williams first and Peterson tied for second with Michael Turner, the MVP of an amazing Atlanta Falcons turnaround season.

Among quarterbacks, the Cardinals' Kurt Warner, the Saints' Drew Brees and the Chargers' Philip Rivers have the numbers but lack the team success to go with it. And Brett Favre has nine wins but 19 interceptions on a fading Jets team.

As for receivers, there really are none to consider. The NFL leader in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,427) is Andre Johnson, who plays for the 7-8 Texans.

With one more week to consider, here are my top three candidates and a defensive darkhorse:

1. Peyton Manning, Colts.

Team record and playoff status: 11-4; clinched AFC's No. 5 seed.

Stats: 364-for-548, 66.4 pct., 3,907 yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs, 13 sacks, 93.8 rating.

Why he'll win: He has led the Colts to seven come-from-behind victories and an eight-game winning streak. He overcame his own preseason knee surgery, several other injuries to teammates and a shaky defense to lead the Colts to yet another 11-victory season and playoff berth. If the award truly goes to the most "valuable," Manning is the man -- so far.

Why he won't win: Voters won't be able to get past his rustiness early in the season. He's part of the reason the Colts started 3-4.

2. Chad Pennington, Dolphins.

Team record and playoff status: 10-5; not in yet, but a victory at his former team, the Jets, clinches the AFC East title.

Stats: 299-for-446, 67.0 pct, 3,454 yards, 17 TDs, 7 INTs, 23 sacks, 96.4 rating.

Why he'll win: He's the new quarterback on a team that has gone from 1-15 to 10-5. He's tied for second in passer rating and completion percentage and tied for the fourth-fewest interceptions.

Why he won't win: Quarterbacks have won the MVP 16 times since John Elway won it with 19 touchdown passes in 1987. None has thrown fewer than 24 touchdown passes.

3. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers.

Team record and playoff status: 11-4; clinched a berth.

Stats: 248 carries, 1,337 yards, 5.4 average, 18 touchdowns, zero fumbles.

Why he'll win: He leads the league with 20 touchdowns, including two receiving. His 5.4-yard rushing average is the best among players with at least 168 carries. And the guy hasn't fumbled once on an 11-4 team.

Why he won't win: He has 320 fewer yards rushing than Peterson and won't win the rushing title.

Defensive dark horse: James Harrison, LB, Steelers.

Team record and playoff status: 11-4; clinched AFC North and No. 2 seed.

Why he'll win: With all due respect to safety Troy Polamalu, Harrison probably is the best player on the league's best defense. He has a franchise-record 16 sacks, one interception and a league-high seven forced fumbles.

Why he won't win: A defensive player has won the award only four times. The last to do it? Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

mcraig@startribune.com