Despite the end of a significant Florida drought, a forecastwetter-than-average winter by AccuWeather.com meteorologists could spelltrouble for the 2009-2010 Florida citrus crop.The United States is the second largest producer of oranges and orange juicein the world, second only to Brazil. Florida leads the way among production inthe U.S. Recent and ongoing drought-busting rain has come to the aid of Floridacitrus growers as well as firefighters, residents and business owners.
Drought-busting rain continues over a large part of Florida, including theorange groves. The drenching rain is too late for the 2008-2009 citrus seasonbut could aid the 2009-2010 crop. Most Florida oranges are harvested during thedry season from mid-November through mid-February. The typical dry seasonbegins during the mid-autumn and extends through much of May.
The drought, which spanned well beyond this past winter, had roots into 2008and even 2007 in parts of Florida. In some counties, the rain through the endof this week and into the weekend will completely wipe out the rainfalldeficit. Up until this past weekend, rainfall had been less than 50 percent ofthe dry season normal. In some cases, rainfall was less than 25 percent ofaverage.
A lack of rainfall from last autumn through the winter negatively affectedthe amount of fruit harvested. Prior to the rainfall of the past week or so,some of the citrus trees were showing the effects of the drought in the form ofwilt. While less rain is needed as the oranges are ripening, compared to whenthe fruit is growing, little or no rain during the ripening stage can lead totree stress and fruit loss.
Despite the lack of rain and a couple of brushes with freezes this pastwinter, production of Florida oranges this season was only slightly lower thanthe 2007-2008 season, according to the United States Department of Agriculture(USDA). Many grove owners were able to irrigate to make up for the lack ofrainfall. Water restrictions this past season forced some grove owners toswitch to limited production techniques. Too much irrigation can deplete groundwater supply and cause water quality to deteriorate.
An El Niño is forecast by AccuWeather.com this winter. During atypical El Niño winter, the weather pattern is wetter and stormier thanaverage in Florida. While some rain would be welcomed, too much rain can leadto disease, fruit and root rot and mold problems.
Recall that in 2007, orange juice prices soared as U.S. citrus productiondropped due to part to citrus canker, a disease spread by the wind. Floridahurricanes in 2007 spread the disease to the point beyond containment. Any treewithin approximately 2,000 feet of a tree that tested positive for canker hadto be destroyed. Many trees have not been replaced since the loss. According tothe Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC), the number of bearing orange trees isat the lowest levels since 1992-1993.
According to the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, the number of AtlanticBasin tropical storms/hurricanes is expected to be below average this season.
However, while the number of storms may be down, many of the systems areexpected to form relatively close to the U.S. coastline and some could strikeFlorida. The current system affecting Florida has yet to show full tropicalcharacteristics but could evolve into a subtropical storm at some point. Thesystem is bringing currently bringing significant rain, but only modest windsto parts of the Sunshine State.
The FDOC is anticipating lower orange production for the 2009-2010 seasoncompared to this season, due in part to weather related concerns.
Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski
