In 2009, one of the world's foremost political scientists published a prophetic research study questioning how much influence the media had in elections. In "Does the Media Matter?" Alan Gerber, a professor at Yale, found that randomly assigning participants to receive different newspapers or no newspaper had "no effect on political knowledge, stated opinions, or turnout in postelection survey and voter data." Most participants, they found, had made up their minds before reading the news.
This was not a unique finding. In another recent experimental study, researchers found that fact-checking of inaccurate statements had little impact on changing the minds of Donald Trump voters. Participants were given a series of falsehoods Trump had said, then shown that they were not true. But voters maintained their unwavering support for him, even if they admitted to previously believing untrue information.
"I guess it means that politicians like Trump can spread misinformation without losing support," concluded the study's author, Briony Swire-Thompson, a graduate student at the University of Western Australia.
In many ways, Trump's victory was a large-scale natural experiment reaffirming the findings in these research studies. We may never again witness the media's united effort to condemn a major-party presidential candidate. Only six newspapers endorsed Trump, while several media outlets that almost always support Republicans urged their readers to reject him as an unambiguous threat to the world order.
This unprecedented coalition was, evidently, ineffective.
Now, rather than admitting the difficult realization of their own limits, many journalists are seeking to redirect blame. Facebook, where "fake news" spread virally side by side with real reporting, has become the go-to scapegoat. "Mark Zuckerberg is in Denial," declared one piece in the New York Times that excoriated the social network CEO for defending the company's role in the election.
Zuckerberg has called accusations that Facebook influenced the election "a pretty crazy idea," citing internal data showing that fake news, hoaxes and alternative news sites represent a tiny fraction of the overall news shared on the platform. He says Facebook routinely introduces a diverse set of views to its users, but they choose to ignore them and don't click through to stories that differ from their preconceived opinions.
Indeed, research suggests that most links shared on Facebook aren't even clicked on but are shared by partisans who already know what they want to believe.