Rainy Lake fishing guide Billy Dougherty lives as far north in Minnesota as anyone, and his gut tells him that next weekend's fishing opener won't be as icy as people think.
"Everybody should be ready to go fishing," Dougherty said last week from his family-owned resort in International Falls. "It should be pretty much game on."
As he spoke, Rainy Lake's Black Bay, Cranberry Bay and Sand Bay were melting and well on their way to open water.
"My prediction is that the ice will be out on the main lake by May 10," Dougherty said.
Dougherty's optimism is shared in many parts of the state, but there's no question that ice outs are running late and that anglers on some lakes won't have full reign due to remnant ice sheets and drifting floes. It's the second time in five years that ice conditions have threatened the opener. In 2013, Mille Lacs and other lakes set records for late ice outs.
"The forecast is encouraging, but we are still behind," said Pete Boulay, assistant state climatologist.
"It's going to be nip and tuck," said veteran fishing guide Tom Neustrom of Grand Rapids, a tireless promoter of the sport. "We need a little help and some wind and some warm weather again."
Boulay said the weather trend for next week looks to be "seasonable" in the northern two-thirds of the state, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. But he agreed with Neustrom that lake ice "will just sit there" in many cases if there's no wind to push it around.