How long should you plan to live?
No one can really know, of course. But the answer to that question may be the most critical factor in making a successful financial plan for retirement.
Fewer baby boomer retirees — Americans born between 1946 and 1964 — have traditional pensions than their parents' generation did, which means they will need to retire on income from Social Security and savings. At the same time, expected longevity for men and women at age 65 has jumped more than 10 percent since 2000, according to the Society of Actuaries. Men who reach age 65 can be expected to live to an average age of 86.6, and women to 88.8.
And those figures are only averages. Odds are, you could live even longer.
These lofty ages produce what experts call longevity risk, which is the danger of exhausting resources before the end of life. The risk is significant even for more affluent households, said Vickie Bajtelsmit, a Colorado State University finance professor who specializes in retirement and financial planning.
"The problem is especially large for widows over age 85," she said, because income typically falls by roughly one-third after the death of a spouse.
Online longevity calculators offer one way to push past the averages. But Steve Vernon, an actuary and research scholar at the Stanford Center on Longevity, cautions that it's best to stick to calculators that rely only on inputs shown by research to be accurate predictors.
The most conservative retirement plan assumes that you will live to 100, Vernon said, but there are trade-offs if you take that approach. "Even though I may want my money to last a long time, I also might want to spend money in the early years of retirement, while I'm healthy enough to enjoy it," he said. "It's a very personal choice."