Nothing upsets a president's re-election groove like ugly economic numbers. Here are some answers about how Friday's economic news may play in a close presidential race:
Q What can Obama tell voters if the job picture stays bleak?
A After 3 1/2 years in office, it's getting harder to blame the slow recovery on the mistakes of his predecessor, George W. Bush. But Obama keeps reminding the public of how bad things were when he took office in January 2009. The economy was deep into the recession and losing jobs month after month. In contrast, over the past two years, Obama notes, businesses have been adding jobs, just not as quickly as needed. He's also tried shifting blame to congressional Republicans, saying they've held up the recovery by refusing to pass most elements of his jobs bill. And he says some factors dragging down the U.S. economy are beyond a president's control, such as the European economic crisis and fluctuating gas prices.
Q Is Republican Mitt Romney seizing this opportunity?
A The lousy jobs numbers fit neatly into Romney's central campaign pitch: That guy doesn't have a clue how to fix the economy. Romney says his experience with a private equity firm taught him how to create jobs.
Q Which do the voters believe?
A It's a toss-up so far. In an Associated Press-GfK poll last month, people were split over who they'd trust most to handle the economy.
Q Couldn't the economic outlook brighten before Election Day?
A Some economists think the weakness could be temporary, reflecting the fallout from an unusually warm winter and technical issues that can sway the government's numbers. Consumer spending and exports remain solid, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, and the outlook may bounce back to last winter's optimism. Or the weak report could mark the beginning of a stall in the already sluggish recovery. Discouraging numbers can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And Europe remains a big factor. If Europe addresses its financial troubles, and keeps Greece in the eurozone, the financial markets are likely to settle, Zandi said, and boost U.S. employers' confidence. But if Europe slowly worsens, it will be a drag on the U.S. economy.
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