The Donald Trump administration thinks ongoing negotiations with China and the European Union (E.U.) are taking the country toward a truce in the trade war over tariffs and a big win for the United States. But if those talks remain unresolved for very long, they may be too little, too late for certain businesses in Minnesota and across the country.
The problem, analysts and scholars say, is that timetables that dictate industry actions are not as flexible as negotiating tactics.
Every economic sector has some kind of deadline, noted Kyle Goldschmidt, an authority on supply chains at the University of St. Thomas. Best Buy might need to get its Christmas orders for electronics in six months in advance, or Target must ensure it has inventory on the shelves for peak buying season.
Until it is resolved, the trade war must be accounted for in every business' plans.
"It doesn't matter what industry you're in," Goldschmidt said. "These tariffs are going to affect you."
The White House and the U.S. trade representative's office did not respond to requests for comment. But President Donald Trump has highlighted E.U. willingness to cut automotive tariffs on U.S. vehicles and a promise to buy more U.S. liquefied natural gas as signs of progress. He also has pledged to give up to $12 billion to American farmers to offset the financial hit they are taking on tariffs.
Negotiations with China are ongoing, but have yet to render a breakthrough. Instead on July 31 Trump, who has already imposed import tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese products, threatened to raise from 10 percent to 25 percent potential new import tariffs on $200 billion more in Chinese goods.
Meanwhile, U.S. companies scramble to dodge financial fallout, a task that could prove impossible if they wait out trade-war peace talks.