Economies can suffer both sudden crashes and chronic diseases. Housing markets in the rich world have caused both types of problem.
A trillion dollars of dud mortgages blew up the financial system in 2007-08. But just as pernicious is the creeping dysfunction that housing has created over decades: vibrant cities without space to grow; aging homeowners in half-empty homes who are keen to protect their view; a generation of young people who cannot easily afford to rent or buy and who think capitalism has let them down.
Much of the blame lies with warped housing policies that date back to World War II and are intertwined with an infatuation with homeownership. They have caused one of the rich world's most serious and longest-running economic failures. A fresh architecture is urgently needed.
At the root of that failure is a lack of building, especially near thriving cities where jobs are plentiful. From Sydney to Sydenham, fiddly regulations protect an elite of existing homeowners and prevent developers from building the skyscrapers and flats the modern economy demands. Resulting high rents and house prices make it hard for workers to move to where the most productive jobs are, and have slowed growth.
Overall housing costs in America absorb 11% of GDP, up from 8% in the 1970s. If just three big cities — New York, San Francisco and San Jose — relaxed planning rules, America's GDP could be 4% higher. That is an enormous prize.
As well as being inefficient, housing markets are deeply unfair. Over a period of decades, falling interest rates have compounded inadequate supply and led to a surge in prices. In America the frenzy is concentrated in thriving cities; in other rich countries average national prices have soared.
In Canada they are up by half since 2008.
The soaring cost of housing has created gaping inequalities and has inflamed both generational and geographical divides. In 1990, a generation of baby boomers, with a median age of 35, owned a third of America's real estate by value. In 2019, a similarly sized cohort of millennials, aged 31, owned just 4%.