A 23-year-old hairstylist in Hastings will probably vote how dad tells her, even as she feels the first stirrings of political conviction. Two Minneapolis small-business owners watch their taxes and health insurance costs steadily rise, and wonder if staying in Minnesota makes sense. A Buffalo special education teacher hopes state government continues to make public school funding a spending priority.
On Tuesday, Americans head to the polls for what pundits call an "off-year" election. With no presidential race as the common point of entry, this year's political cycle is defined by dozens of gubernatorial and congressional races from coast to coast, including hard-fought contests for governor and U.S. senator in Minnesota.
The outcome of all those races will set the political climate ahead of a wide-open presidential race in 2016. While Republicans hope to capitalize this year on the growing unpopularity of President Obama, Democrats are trying to reactivate a 2012 coalition that brought in women, young and nonwhite voters to catapult the party to victory.
Locally, the contest between Gov. Mark Dayton and Republican Jeff Johnson, along with a handful of competitive state House races, will determine whether the DFL extends its two-year grip on state government or Minnesota returns to divided government.
Despite the stakes, and the millions spent by both parties, it's likely that far fewer voters will weigh in. Participation in elections historically drops in nonpresidential years; in Minnesota, which leads the nation in voter turnout, just 55 percent of those eligible voted in 2010 compared to 76 percent in 2012.
Amid an improving economy, the absence of a single galvanizing issue and the usual flood of contradictory campaign ads, the political attention of Minnesotans has been fragmented. On a Tuesday in late October, two weeks before Election Day, the Star Tribune interviewed a dozen people about politics and policies, the governor's race and other election issues.
Voters were chosen randomly and had only two things in common: They were close to Hwy. 55, which cuts diagonally from southeast to northwest through cities, suburbs, town and country; and they were willing to share their political opinions. These are a few of them.
Hastings
At 5th Avenue Color Company in this small river city's downtown, Hanna Fritz, a 23-year-old stylist with a small nose ring and a blonde streak through her auburn hair, repeatedly apologized for not knowing more about politics.
Fritz was not able to name either Dayton or Johnson. Recently moved from her parents' house, and still on their health insurance plan, Fritz said she'd "probably" vote this year.
"Whatever my dad wants," she added. Fritz voted Mitt Romney for president in 2012, and said her whole family votes Republican.
But Fritz recently came to a new political opinion that surprised her a little, as she found herself going against the family grain.
"Abortion — I always thought I would be against it, like, absolutely not," Fritz said. "But now, reaching the age I am, and if something were to happen where I was not ready, or rape or whatever, I definitely think it's a choice you should be able to make."
South Minneapolis
First cousins John Bean and Matthew Bean co-own Flair Fountains, headquartered in a small building just north of where Hwy. 55 becomes Hiawatha Avenue. John is bald and stocky, Matthew lanky, long-haired and bearded. But they share the same political concerns.
"Whatever makes the most sense for our business is pretty much what drives us," said Matthew Bean, who lives in Woodbury.
This year, they both plan to vote against Dayton. "For me, on the fiscal side, he's a little too liberal with the money," said John Bean, a Minneapolis resident. The Beans said their property tax bills are rising, their insurance premiums shot up by more than 50 percent this year, and they feel overburdened by the many small fees and regulations that accompany business ownership.
Flair Fountains employs 10 people, and designs and builds fountains for cities, parks, campuses and corporations around the country. The Beans said about 75 percent of their business comes from outside Minnesota, which raises the kinds of conversation that have driven this year's gubernatorial race, as Johnson argued that DFL control of the Capitol has been hard on small-business owners.
"You've got South Dakota saying, 'Come on over here and basically do business for free,' " John Bean said. "They'll give you a vacant building and it's yours as long as you stay in there 10 years. So that's awfully inviting, and it's never off the table."
North Minneapolis
A few years out of the Navy, Brandon Smith is back in the city where he grew up, and starting at Minneapolis Community and Technical College in January on the GI Bill.
Meanwhile, the friendly, energetic 28-year-old is working full-time as a third-shift machine operator at Amport Foods, earning $15.95 an hour, with on-the-job training opportunities.
"No shortage of work in Minnesota, man," Smith said as he headed into Sumner Community Library, along Olson Hwy., to use the Internet. "I know that has a lot to do with politics. I'm all about keeping the job. Dayton's been in there, and I'm like this: If it's not broke, don't fix it."
Plymouth
This is Jeff Johnson's home turf: He lives here, represents the area on the Hennepin County Board, and did the same when he served in the Legislature.
But a quick conversation with Anne Diedrick, a 39-year-old stay-at-home mom loading groceries into the back of her SUV in a Cub Foods parking lot, illustrated what has been one of Johnson's chief challenges this year: low name recognition.
"Um, let me think. Don't tell me who it is," Diedrick, who lives in nearby Maple Grove, said when asked if she knows Dayton's Republican challenger. She finally gave up after being told his first name is Jeff: "I don't know, I don't know."
Diedrick said she leans Democratic but tends to be more conservative about government spending. She said she is not very political but was certain she voted for Dayton in 2010, and is likely to do so again this year.
"I would not say I'm very well-informed," she said, as she hoisted pumpkins from her shopping cart into her vehicle.
Rockford Township
For 42 years, Lee Waldon has run Waldon Woods Antiques, just off a Wright County stretch of the highway. It's been nearly that long since he supported a Democrat.
"The last great liberal I liked was Hubert Humphrey," said Waldon, who would only say he's "over 62."
Waldon said President Jimmy Carter turned him off Democrats, and he's been disappointed with Dayton. But Johnson hasn't won his vote yet, either.
"I don't feel a comfort level yet, and I don't feel like voting for him just because he's a Republican," Waldon said. Looking to 2016, Waldon foresaw circumstances that could pull him back into the Democratic fold. "I can't say what will happen when and if Hillary [Clinton] runs," he said. "I think Hillary did a good job as secretary of state."
Buffalo
A 48-year-old special education teacher at Buffalo Middle School, Shannon Bye has a face etched with the kind of worry lines that betray 22 years in a stressful job.
Bye said Dayton has come through on the two issues that affect her own life on a daily basis: boosting education funding and promoting employment opportunities.
"I see that our numbers for unemployment have gone decidedly down," Bye said. "I think that reflects well for everyone, because when the numbers are high, you see stressors in the classroom. Families struggle to do what they need to do, and that trickles down to the kids."
Still, Bye wouldn't reveal her vote. "You know, that's a personal choice," she said.
Maple Lake
After a frustrating year of helping health insurance customers navigate the complexities of the federal Affordable Care Act, Anna Pribyl and her colleagues at Lake Central Insurance changed course in this depopulated downtown.
"We're not taking on any new MNsure clients this year," Pribyl, 32, said of the users of Minnesota's trouble-plagued health insurance exchange. "Half the time, we'd spend two or three hours on the phone to MNsure just waiting for somebody to answer the phone."
Many of those customers, she said, qualified for Medical Assistance in the end. That meant no percentage for their broker. "You're spending two, three, four hours with somebody to have absolutely nothing come back your way," Pribyl said.
Pribyl voted for Dayton four years ago, but frustration with MNsure has driven her away from the governor. Still, she has little familiarity with Johnson, and expressed deep frustration at politics in general.
"I can't stand October and November," Pribyl said. "Everything is just tearing each other apart. If they would get on TV and truly debate and say something true about themselves, that would be great."
Kimball
At Arnold's of Kimball, a farm implement dealer along Hwy. 55, no one wanted to talk politics on the record. After a series of backroom conversations, general manager Eric Donnay reluctantly emerged.
"I'm going to get a lot of [manure] for this," Donnay said, using slightly more off-color language than that.
Farmers love to talk politics, Donnay said, and right now they're worried. Despite the recent federal farm bill's passage, a dysfunctional Congress has left many unsettled about the nation's long-term agricultural policy. And despite a few years of a mostly healthy ag economy, Donnay sees warning signs.
"Three-dollar corn, whereas the last few years it's been seven dollars a bushel," Donnay said. "This year in central Minnesota we had a very wet spring, poor planting conditions, which results in poor yield. That's what farmers are concerned about."
Donnay called himself an independent voter. "I vote between the party lines," he said. Pronouncing himself "mostly satisfied" with Dayton while knowing "almost zero" about Johnson, he planned to follow his own election-year custom.
"A week beforehand, I'll read up on where Jeff Johnson is on the main issues, and I'll see where Dayton is," Donnay said. "Then, I'll decide."
Patrick Condon • 651-925-5049