According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins still only have a 7.7 percent chance of making the playoffs this season (fourth in the AL Central behind Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago). That's a net change of minus-22.7 percent since the start of the season, when BP put the Twins -- based on various metrics -- at a 30.1 percent chance of making the playoffs (third in the division behind Detroit and Chicago). The change from start of the year to now represents the second-worst mark in the AL, with only Oakland being more disappointing according to this Insider story and the numbers. What is fascinating, though, is that when you ask a lot of people -- including plenty of stat-heads who normally eschew things that don't make numerical or logical sense -- they'd put the percentages much higher. Their reasons -- that the Twins have a history of being good in the second half and against the AL Central, and that they've seen this happen before -- sound good but shouldn't really be predictors if we look at 2011 factors independently.
The whole thing has been summed up by a popular two-word phrase often seen on Twitter: "It's Happening." The basic definition is that no matter what the numbers say, no matter how poorly the Twins started out, they are doing that thing they do now and nobody can stand in their way.
When a team defies the numbers enough times, do the numbers become meaningless ... does the team acquire permanent "outlier" status?
How do we reconcile what we think we know with what we think we see?
