First starts for rookies appear to indicate little about a pitcher's future success

OAKLAND, CALIF. – As Tyler Duffey reached the Twins dugout, discouraged by giving up six runs while recording only six outs in his major league debut three summers ago, Trevor May greeted him with a message meant to console.

"I said, 'Don't worry, mine was worse,' " May said Friday. "Mine took longer and looked uglier."

May's point is one the Twins are confronting more than ever before. Four starting pitchers have made their big-league debuts for the team this season, something that has happened only once before in franchise history: last year. That's a lot of youth and inexperience, a lot of cross-your-finger evenings, in the most important position on the field.

And the hardest part of all these career launchings is this: The Twins can't trust the results they are seeing, good or bad.

"I don't think so. It's more about trying to see how they handle the transition, the demeanor on the mound," manager Paul Molitor said. "But it's hard to gauge.

"You've got to be careful how much credit or lack of credit you give people for success or lack of success. We're watching. We're watching stuff, not just control but command, and trying to see if their pitches play."

But drawing conclusions, or even just projecting what a pitcher might become, based on a September in the majors? It's next to impossible.

He followed up that hopeful outing, in fact, by giving up eight runs in his next start. By season's end, his ERA had ballooned to 6.53.

Jose Berrios, meanwhile, gave up five runs in four innings in his 2016 debut, and had a rookie ERA of 8.02 in 14 starts. He was an All-Star two years later.

And May? He told the story Friday of his own 2014 debut, while sitting in the same stadium in which it occurred. "I don't think it could have gone any worse. So it's easy for me to say, 'That's not who I am. Your first start, your first season, that's not who you will be,' " he said of that two-inning debut, in which he walked seven A's batters. "But it's a good memory now. My grandkids will know about it. I joke about it — I had the worst debut of anyone in here, and I'm still here."

That should come as some comfort for Stephen Gonsalves, the lefthander who pitched six shutout innings in Detroit on Wednesday.

Of the 44 starting pitchers who made their major league debut this season, nobody recorded fewer outs than Gonsalves, who gave up four runs in just 1⅓ innings in August. But that group of 44 has a cumulative ERA of 5.58, which tells you how bright lights affect young pitchers.

And that's why teams can't even read too much into successful debuts, either. Fernando Romero, for instance, is one of eight rookies who didn't give up a run in his debut this season; he gave up only one run in his first three starts for the Twins, in fact. But hitters figured him out, hit .350 over his final six starts, and Romero, with a 7.67 ERA over that stretch, went back to Class AAA Rochester.

Gonsalves has stayed in the majors, and eventually began to show signs of the promise that got him promoted in the first place.