Minnesota’s job market will keep improving in 2014, but growth will slow and fall below historic averages, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis predicted Monday.

While the Fed’s surveys of business leaders and manufacturers show managers are optimistic about sales and investment in 2014, the Fed projects job growth will tick downward slightly to 1.2 percent (compared to 1.6 percent in 2012 and about 1.5 percent in 2013). Unemployment should keep falling to about 4.3 percent, but more slowly than in 2013.

“The Minnesota economy continued on its upward trend in 2013, which will continue into 2014, but the pace of growth may slow slightly,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

The regional Fed’s annual economic outlook has tended to overestimate job growth in recent years, but it almost precisely called the decline in unemployment in 2013.

The projection for most states in the Ninth District of the Federal Reserve is slower job growth than the national average. The one exception is North Dakota, which is projected to add jobs at a 4.5 percent growth rate, and where the Fed expects unemployment to fall to 2.3 percent.

To see a video of the presentation by Madden and his colleague Rob Grunewald, as well as lots of charts and state-specific projections, go here.

Graphic courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis