This looks like a slim winter for finches in Minnesota.
Mike Hendrickson, birding guide from Duluth, commented the other day by email that few finches of any species have been seen in Duluth or along the North Shore recently. During a good finch year for us, migrants from Canada would be coming south by now.
This agrees with an annual prediction made several weeks ago by Canadian birder Ron Pittaway. He makes a yearly fall survey of seed crops across northern Canada, gathering information from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and numerous birders. His report is published on the birding email list BirdChat.
His general forecast: “This is not an irruption (flight movement south) year for winter finches.” He expects movement only into what he calls “normal winter ranges.” Those usually do not extend into Minnesota.
Tree-seed crops in Canada are good, offering sufficient winter food for Pine Grosbeaks, Purple Finches, Red and White-winged crossbills, both redpoll species, Pine Siskins, and Evening Grosbeaks.
Our usual best bets for winter finches as far south as the Twin Cities are Pine Siskins and Common Redpolls. Expect few this winter. Most will stay in northern Canada, Pittaway says. He writes of “continent-wide” seed crops in Canada. Trees on which these birds feed include Mountain Ash, buckthorn, birch, alder, spruce, pine, and hemlock. The only tree species for which a poor seed crop is reported is White Pine.
Pittaway also predicted a small to moderate movement south of Blue Jays, no southern movement of Red-breasted Nuthatches, and few Bohemian Waxwings.
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Below, a pair of Common Redpolls photographed at Two Harbors in 2010.