A former state demographer is offering little hope of a turnaround in the enrollment decline that has put the St. Paul Public Schools in budget-cutting mode for the past two years.
That slump, in fact, is expected to last at least a decade, Hazel Reinhardt told the school board last week.
Her report came on the same day that the board named a new superintendent, and it brought a harder edge to an issue already under scrutiny.
Four school board candidates said in surveys posted online last week that enrollment was one of three major issues confronting the state's second-largest district. The St. Paul Federation of Teachers also has asked school board and mayoral candidates if they would back a school levy increase if one were put before voters.
The idea had unanimous support. But the board is not ready to float such a measure.
Board Chairman Jon Schumacher said Friday: "I don't believe we can talk about a referendum until we are able to show the community we are using our current budget as efficiently and effectively as possible and have pursued every option available for additional financial support."
The loss of students, and the revenue they bring, has been a contributing factor in budget shortfalls of $15.1 million this year and another $27.3 million projected for 2017-18.
Two years ago, Reinhardt, hired as a consultant by the district, projected a slow, steady rise in student population. The district would have between 37,551 and 38,983 students in 2024-25, she told the board then. (It now has 35,174 students.)
