HERSHEY, Pa. – Despite Ted Cruz's best effort to make inroads in the Northeast — rolling matzoh at a Jewish bakery while his wife, Heidi, extolled the smell of the Big Apple — his dismal performance so far shows the difficulty ahead as the Texas senator tries to swat back Donald Trump's ability to claim the Republican nomination.
Polls show Trump leading in Pennsylvania, one of several mid-Atlantic states voting Tuesday. So Cruz has embarked on a two-pronged strategy to win over more moderate-minded Republicans while also solidifying his dominance among the far-right evangelical and Tea Party forces that propelled him in earlier state contests.
The dual track was on display this week when instead of leveling broadsides at Trump during an election night speech in Philadelphia, Cruz delivered a presidential-style "Yes, we will" message of unified GOP optimism. That was followed Wednesday by a visit to Hershey, Pa. "Pennsylvania certainly could get a little more competitive, but it's going to be tough for him," said G. Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin and Marshall College and director of a poll released Thursday. "What hurts him is, you're in a state with very different demographics than the states he's won."
Cruz has maintained his second-place standing during the long campaign in large part by winning primaries in Southern, Midwestern and Western states, where his brand of shut-down-the-government conservatism resonates with Republican voters.
But he was flattened in New York, where exit polls showed just 1 in 4 GOP voters considered themselves "very conservative"; 6 in 10 said they felt "concerned" or "scared" of his policies; and 4 in 10 said they wouldn't vote for him if he were the party's nominee.
Pivoting to Pennsylvania, Cruz stepped into his ostrich cowboy boots to press his case, fighting against the perception that his campaign is not geared to compete in the Mid-Atlantic states.
"Let me tell you what Donald and the media want to convince everyone: that Pennsylvania is a suburb of Manhattan," Cruz said. "I've got a lot more faith in the people of Pennsylvania."
Pennsylvania, Maryland and other mid-Atlantic states voting Tuesday are made up of diverse electorates — intense urban centers of often more moderate voters in Philadelphia and Baltimore, but also rolling farmlands and socially conservative rural enclaves.
The problems that tanked Cruz in New York, however, run deeper than his inartful criticism of New Yorkers and his Texas twang. Cruz's strong point has been the delegate race — the shadow campaign of the Republican nominating process that has allowed him to scoop up delegates even after Trump won the state's primary.
But he may start running into tougher competition as Trump has retooled his operation under the leadership of elections guru Paul J. Manafort.
